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Originally Posted by bobbyfg7
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PROJECTED STARTERS
JASON KIDD, PG
Projection: 7.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 9.1 ast per 40 min; 12.14 PER | Player card
• Big, savvy point guard who rebounds very well. Great open-court passer.
• Struggles to check quick guards, but excels at defending wings and team defense.
• Will make careless turnovers. Can hit spot-up 3s but can't shoot on move.
Kidd's offensive numbers undeniably regressed last season -- he slumped to 34 percent on 3s and averaged only 9.2 points per 40 minutes -- but his defense was a major reason the Mavs were able to win the championship. The key was Dallas' realization that Kidd, while a point guard on offense, no longer had the wheels to defend the position. Instead, his size and savvy made him a very good defender against wing players. He spent the entire Finals doing battle with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and held his own.
Kidd, of course, remains a great passer, ranking fifth in pure point rating last season, although his tendency to commit utterly preventable turnovers appears to be only worsening. In the half court, he is content to spot up on the perimeter and virtually never seeks out offense otherwise; two-thirds of his shots were 3s (the highest rate among point guards) and he took only 50 shots at the rim the entire season (only three players played at least 2,000 minutes and took fewer).
What's more amazing, however, is his energy level at age 38. Kidd was second among point guards in defensive rebound rate, fifth in steals and 10th in blocks, all while having one of the lowest foul rates in basketball. As long as his secondary skills remain so strong, he can be an effective player despite rarely scoring.
CARON BUTLER, SG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 18.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 13.88 PER | Player card
• Volume scorer who likes to take line-drive, midrange jump shots.
• Good build and can score in traffic. Quick release. Doesn't see floor.
• Good hands on defense but middling effort. Uninspired team defender.
I had felt Butler's volume shooting style was a deterrent to Dallas offensively because it subtracted touches from more efficient players; that Dallas replaced him after his injury with three players (Peja Stojakovic, J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson) who shot far less but with a greater true shooting percentage dovetailed nicely with my theory.
Nonetheless, Dallas played extremely well for the 28 full games Butler was around. He averaged a point every two minutes and showed, at the very least, that his scoring could be an effective weapon on the right team. The rest of his sheet was largely empty, however. Butler had an unusually high turnover rate for a jump shooter and rarely set up teammates (he was 60th among small forwards in assist rate). His main feat was shooting 45.3 percent on long 2s -- a shot he took, on average, once every five minutes.
Butler's defensive reputation is poor, but it appeared he tried harder in Dallas than he did in Washington. His stats in a limited sample of games last season were very strong -- an opponent PER of 10.5, one of the highest ratings among small forwards by Synergy, and a 5.3 points per 100 possessions differential. Given his unimpressive results in Washington, that's likely just a small-sample outlier, but we should keep an open mind if the same data crops up again this season. That will be more difficult, alas, as Butler tries to recover from a serious knee injury. As a jump shooter, his offense might not suffer too much, but it might be increasingly difficult for a 31-year-old with a bad wheel to defend the position.
SHAWN MARION, SF
Projection: 14.9 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 14.23 PER | Player card
• Quick-leaping combo forward who is very effective on short-range shots.
• Bizarre, low shot release. Has stopped taking 3s. Excellent quickness for size.
• Can post up smaller wings. Good rebounder. Runs floor and handles ball well.
One twist that's always fun to watch is when coaches take plays from a new player's previous team that had worked well for him. For example, last season Dallas began running a weird play Phoenix had used with great success with Marion -- a 3/5 pick-and-roll at the top of the free throw line between Marion and the center. In Phoenix, it was Amare Stoudemire; in Dallas, it was Tyson Chandler. Each was able to catch opponents off guard with that play a couple of times a game, generating either an easy short-range look for Marion or a dunk for the center.
Marion has changed up his game quite a bit in Dallas, and it helped him to a major bounce-back season that received little fanfare but was a crucial part in the Mavs' surprise title. He no longer shoots 3s and posts up considerably more often, which boosted his shooting percentage to last season's 52 percent. He also picked up his rebounding after it fell off considerably in 2009-10, ranking second among all small forwards in rebound rate.
Marion remains a capable defender, too, who can move up to the 4 spot and wreak havoc in small lineups. While there's a fair amount of risk that his performance will regress -- he is 33 and just had his best season of the past three years -- the adjustments he's made in his game have helped him hold off Father Time a bit longer.
DIRK NOWITZKI, PF
Projection: 24.6 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 21.09 PER | Player card
• Nimble 7-footer with devastating midrange jumper and unblockable fadeaway.
• Moves well on defense but lacks strength. Not a leaper.
• Great going left and quickly pulling up for shot. Rarely turns ball over.
Nowitzki's 2010-11 postseason actually wasn't out of line with what he's done in several other playoff seasons; it just had a much happier ending. He's been doing this for years -- his career playoff PER is higher than his regular-season mark, a boast very few players can make. However, because he finally won a title after countless years of falling short, everybody was looking for "the difference" … but Nowitzki didn't really do anything different.
Nowitzki remains among the game's most devastating offensive weapons thanks to the relatively simple concept that he generates a lot of points from relatively few possessions. It's not just that he averaged 26.9 points per 40 minutes, a fearsome stat in itself, but that he did it with such staggering efficiency. Nowitzki again had among the lowest turnover rates at his position, and his true shooting percentage of 61.7 is mind-boggling for a midrange shooter. He basically turns the game's normal percentages on their head.
I can't stress this enough: You're not supposed to shoot this many long 2s and still have good percentages. For every other player in every other league in the entire world, the long 2-pointer is the worst shot in basketball. But it's not if you're Dirk Nowitzki. He was the second best in the league at shooting from 10-23 feet last season (see chart), but the even more amazing part is in the "attempts" column -- he took nearly 10 a game. Well more than half his shots were long 2s.
Top midrange shooters (10-23 feet), 2010-11
Player Team Att. Pct.
Al Horford Atl 492 51.2
Dirk Nowitzki Dal 723 50.8
Luke Ridnour Min 293 47.8
Elton Brand Phi 561 47.6
Anthony Morrow NJ 245 47.3
Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 150 attempts
Unlike the rest of the planet, Nowitzki is so uncannily accurate that he can dominate games this way. Defenders routinely foul him trying to pressure his shot or by leaving their feet due to the threat of the shot. Opponents send double-teams to prevent it, creating openings for others. And as a result, he was arguably the most valuable offensive player in basketball last season. Certainly he is for Dallas' system -- the Mavs scored 10.27 points fewer per 100 possessions when he left the court last season, a staggering figure that's been pretty steady over the past half-decade.
TYSON CHANDLER, C (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 13.2 pts, 13.1 reb, 0.8 ast per 40 min; 16.70 PER | Player card
• Long, mobile big man who alters shots and controls defensive boards.
• No post game. Improved foul shooter. Strong finisher around basket.
• Runs floor well. Injury-prone. Can't handle ball.
Chandler was the key to Dallas' emergence as a champion-caliber team last season, turning the Mavs' center position from a glaring weakness into a solid positive. While they were fortunate his acquisition worked out so well, they put the odds in their favor by taking a calculated risk -- a high-character, professional player with an expiring contract and a high ceiling.
The risk, obviously, was that Chandler had missed 68 games over the previous two seasons and was at considerably less than full strength in several of the other seasons he played. But his toe and ankles didn't bother him last season, and he put in the effort to greatly improve himself as a shooter. Chandler shot a career-best 73.2 percent from the line -- important because of his high free throw rate -- and knocked down 24 of his 51 shots beyond 10 feet.
Combined with his usual great finishing skills, Chandler led the NBA in true shooting percentage (see chart). Less widely discussed, though, is that he also trimmed his formerly prodigious turnover rate. That had been one of his major offensive limitations with the Hornets, but he reduced the illegal screens and ballhandling blunders enough to post a career-high PER.
True Shooting Percentage leaders, 2010-11
Player Team TS%
Tyson Chandler Dal 69.7
Shaquille O'Neal Bos 65.9
Nene Den 65.7
DeAndre Jordan LAC 64.8
Ronny Turiaf LAL 64.8
Min. 150 "shots" (FGA + (FTA*0.44))
Defensively, Chandler has blocked fewer shots in recent years and has focused more on using his length and mobility to alter them while keeping his defensive position. He dominated on the glass last season, ranking sixth in rebound rate among centers, and both his Synergy and on-court versus off-court numbers confirm the subjective conclusions that he was one of the league's better defensive centers.
Chandler is unlikely to match last season's productivity going forward, as he was a Fluke Rule player in 2010-11 (see Lamar Odom comment). For Dallas, however, it's much more important that he merely stay on the court. The Mavs can live with some decline in his shooting percentages, but they won't win another title without his defense.
RESERVES
JASON TERRY, SG
Projection: 19.0 pts, 2.3 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min; 15.14 PER | Player card
• Fast combo guard with deadly midrange jump shot, especially going right.
• Not a true point guard but capable of creating off dribble. Abysmal rebounder.
• Lacks size, strength on defense but has fast hands. Better in cross-matches.
Everyone knows the Mavs have one great midrange shooter, but in the playoffs, Terry reminded everyone they have two. He shot 46.6 percent on 2-pointers from beyond 10 feet last season, the 11th-best mark in the league, and threw in enough 3-pointers to have a decent true shooting percentage despite all those jumpers.
Terry also proved useful starting trouble in pick-and-rolls; while he doesn't have great court vision, he can play the point in a pinch and ranked seventh among shooting guards in pure point rating. However, he did see a spike in turnovers -- his highest mark in six years -- and that was the main reason his PER fell.
Terry can be a bit high-strung, for both good and bad. Even last season, he had several bizarre incidents (in a two-week stretch at the end of the regular season, he took a cheap shot at Steve Blake, got in a fight on his own bench and celebrated a missed free throw at the buzzer because he didn't know the score), but his unshakable confidence also helped him step up with a series of killer shots in the Finals.
Defensively, Terry's value is linked with that of Jason Kidd. As long as they share the court, they can switch men on defense and Terry can guard the opposing point guard. But against most 2s, Terry is dead meat, so these matchups need to be monitored very carefully. Terry's rebound rates are annually among the worst in basketball, and last season was no exception -- for the second year in a row, he had the league's second-worst mark (see Jamal Crawford comment).
J.J. BAREA, PG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 18.2 pts, 3.7 reb, 7.2 ast per 40 min; 14.39 PER | Player card
• Tiny pick-and-roll expert with explosive first step, especially going right.
• Strong and great at taking charges, but lacks size and is beatable off dribble.
• Has scorer's mentality. Mediocre outside shooter. Can make runners in lane.
Barea emerged as a key rotation player during the Mavs' championship run, using his expertise creating offense in the pick-and-roll to add some zing to Dallas' second unit. He's become incredibly skillful at running his defender into the screen and giving himself a free run at the opposing big man, and with his burst, he has no trouble getting around the corner.
Barea's shot creation is better than his shot-making -- his efficiency rates are nothing special, and although he's clever at looping runners over bigger opponents, he's not a particularly accurate shooter. While his mentality is more to score than pass, he's become a credible shot creator for others, ranking 29th in pure point rating. Barea also is the master of another category: self-created layups. Only 12.5 percent of Barea's baskets at the rim were the result of an assist, the lowest percentage in the NBA last season (see chart).
Lowest percentage of at-rim baskets assisted, 2010-11
Player Team Pct.
J.J. Barea Dal 12.5
Chris Paul NO 12.9
Jameer Nelson Orl 13.1
Raymond Felton NY-Den 14.0
Baron Davis LAC-Cle 16.7
Defensively, Barea's size lures opponents into backing him down. Wrong approach -- Barea is a flopper par excellence and invariably baits opponents into a charging call. He's beatable off the dribble, however, and relatively easy to shoot over the top against. In other words, the less obsessed an opponent is with taking advantage of him, the more easily it does so.
PEJA STOJAKOVIC, SF
Projection: 15.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast per 40 min; 12.18 PER | Player card
• Tall, accurate, long-range shooter with difficult-to-block release.
• Slow-footed. Plagued by back problems. A defensive liability.
• Struggles to create own shot but rarely turns ball over. Poor rebounder.
One of Dallas' best and most unheralded moves was spiriting Stojakovic away from Toronto in early February to add another wing shooter to the bench. Plagued by back and leg problems the past two years, Stojakovic suddenly emerged spry and fit in March, and never looked back, hitting 41.9 percent of his 3s and blistering Portland and the Lakers in the first two rounds of the playoffs before he finally cooled off.
For the season, Stojakovic took more than half his shots behind the arc and turned it over on just 6 percent of his possessions. More impressive was his movement -- he was able to get free often enough to average 18.2 points per 40 minutes, an unusually high rate for a sniper. That alone was ample evidence that the stiff back was feeling much better.
Stojakovic's rejuvenation ended in the Oklahoma City series, and, at 34 with his health history, it's an open question whether he has another season like this left in him. He's also a huge defensive liability whose matchups must be slotted carefully. But few players in history have shot better, and he showed last spring his shooting stroke is still a weapon with which to be reckoned.
BRENDAN HAYWOOD, C
Projection: 9.1 pts, 11.2 reb, 0.9 ast per 40 min; 12.46 PER | Player card
• Big center who can finish dunks and short hooks. Limited low-post game.
• Horrendous foul shooter. Has few ball skills. Solid rebounder.
• Size, shot-blocking make him plus defender but motivation comes and goes.
Haywood led the league in the percentage of his shots that were basket-and-1s, at 11.2 percent (see chart). This might be more encouraging if he hadn't also led the league in wasted free-agent dollars. Dallas gave him a five-year, $43 million deal in the offseason, and then won the Finals with minimum-wagers Ian Mahinmi and Brian Cardinal taking his place.
Highest percentage of shots as basket-and-1s, 2010-11
Player Team Pct.
Brendan Haywood Dal 11.2
Nene Den 9.9
Kwame Brown Cha 8.0
Dwight Howard Orl 7.9
Tyson Chandler Dal 7.1
Min. 20 And-1s
I know the Mavs were willing to burn money to get a ring, but man, that's one hell of a bonfire. The championship halo shouldn't overshadow how badly it will sandbag their cap planning (although the amnesty clause may save them) -- in 2014-15, he'll be 34 and make $10 million. (The total contract value could be more if he achieves some unlikely incentives and Dallas picks up the nonguaranteed final year at $10.5 million in 2015-16, but one can comfortably rule out both possibilities at this point.)
Even Haywood's biggest positive was a negative. He was fifth among centers in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, but that was intentional -- he shot an embarrassing 36.2 percent from the line. This earned him the distinction of the lowest secondary percentage in basketball, as his trips to the line actually dragged his true shooting percentage down (see DeAndre Jordan comment), one of only six players to land in the negatives.
Defensively, he was still fairly solid. Haywood is 7 feet with a solid build, blocks shots and has decent mobility for a player of his size. That makes him a useful backup center, especially against bigger opponents such as the Lakers and Magic. That's why Dallas wanted him, and it was a valid reason. But the Mavs grossly overpaid for him.
DeSHAWN STEVENSON, SG (FREE AGENT -- UNRESTRICTED)
Projection: 11.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 8.01 PER | Player card
• Strong wing defender with toughness. Spot-up 3-point shooter. Slow release.
• Handles ball well but has no burst or leaping ability. Very poor finisher.
• History of back problems. Good shot selection. Questionable tattoo selection.
At the 2010 trade deadline, the Mavericks were stoked that they acquired two players from Washington they thought would put them over the top -- Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. The only drawback was that, as part of the trade, they had to eat the final year and a half on Stevenson's contract.
Funny how things work out. Butler and Haywood were injured in the Finals, while Stevenson shot 13-of-23 on 3s for the series, committed one turnover in 93 minutes and ably defended LeBron James. To say this was unexpected is an understatement: Stevenson had shot 28.2 percent and 31.2 percent the previous two seasons. No, no, not on 3s -- I mean overall.
However, last season he rediscovered his jump shot. Stevenson took three-quarters of his shots behind the arc and made a solid 37.8 percent, raising his offensive value enough that the Mavs could leave him on the court for his defense. He'd been plagued by back trouble the previous few years, and last season's results were pretty consistent with what he had done earlier in his Washington career. So there's at least some hope that this wasn't a fluke (his season, that is, not his Finals) and he can remain a useful role player going forward.
BRIAN CARDINAL, PF
Projection: 8.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 8.94 PER | Player card
• Floor-spacing big man who is strictly catch-and-shoot 3-point threat.
• Slow, undersized defender, but smart and physical. Gives fouls freely.
• Nonfactor on boards. Can't create own shot or finish in paint.
Cardinal set a record that will never be broken -- he was assisted on every single basket he made last season. Yes, that's easier when you make only 43 of them, but still. Amazingly, 42 of those makes were 3-pointers, nearly all coming from spot-ups in the corner. Essentially, Dallas found the one thing Cardinal could do and didn't ask him to do anything more; he shot 48.3 percent on those triples, nearly leading the league in true shooting percentage in the process, and contributed two big ones in the Finals.
Highest percentage of baskets assisted, 2010-11
Player Team Pct. Assisted
Brian Cardinal Dal 100.0
James Jones Mia 98.6
Keith Bogans Chi 93.5
James Posey Ind 91.4
Daequan Cook OKC 91.1
Min. 500 minutes
Cardinal was another spot-up shooter the Mavs had to manage carefully at the defensive end. While he's a clever team defender who takes charges and is more than happy to maim an opponent to prevent a layup, Cardinal is hopeless in individual defense. That, plus his paucity of rebounds, his complete and utter inability to create his own shot, and his limited likelihood of shooting in the 40s on 3s again are some of the reasons he's unlikely to relive his glory of this past postseason.
RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS, G
No projection | Player card
• Speedy guard who can shoot and score. Penetrates but doesn't see court well.
• Gets out of control on drives. Must improve handle. Good rebounder for size.
• Good defensive quickness but needs to improve strength and fundamentals.
The inadvertent catalyst for Dallas' championship run, Beaubois started 26 of the Mavs' last 27 games until injuring his ankle on the final day of the season. He never got back on the active roster, as Dallas' guard rotation suddenly clicked without him.
This isn't all Beaubois' fault, of course -- his presence gave the Mavs one small guard too many. But he also had a rough second season. After missing most of the year with a foot injury, he struggled to regain the scoring prowess he showed as a rookie. Beaubois slumped to 42.2 percent from the floor and 30.1 percent on 3s, while his erratic ballhandling made little progress and doomed him to the "2 in a 1's body" archetype.
Still, even last season Beaubois could fill it up, averaging 19 points per 40 minutes, and one presumes the poor shooting percentages had much do with rust from his long layoff. If so, his scoring boost could prove incredibly helpful to another team if he's ever traded. But it's difficult to find playing time for a poor man's Jason Terry when you already have the real one.
IAN MAHINMI, C
No projection | Player card
• Athletic big man and high-percentage finisher near basket. Draws lots of fouls.
• Has limited perimeter game and very poor ball skills. Lacks strength for a true 5.
• Passable defender but uncoordinated; has sky-high foul rate. Injury-prone.
Dallas fans can pinpoint the exact moment in Game 6 of the Finals when they knew it was their night: the one-legged, Dirk Nowitzki-esque fadeaway Mahinmi made at the end of the third quarter. No, he does not normally do this. Nonetheless, he represented a good value pickup for the end of the Mavs' bench based on his solid numbers in previous NBA minutes and in the D-League.
Mahinmi certainly has his issues -- he fouled at the obscene rate of one every 4.6 minutes, he was far too turnover-prone for such a low-usage player and he has had trouble staying healthy.
However, he can get some points. Mahinmi is very active and efficient around the basket, shooting 56.1 percent from the floor and backing it up with an amazing 0.84 free throw attempts per field goal attempt; he made his freebies, too. As a result, his true shooting percentage of 64.5 was among the best at his position … and yet it brought down his career average. To find a fifth big man this productive on a minimum contract was a quiet coup for Dallas, and one reason among many it emerged victorious in June.
RUDY FERNANDEZ, SG
Projection: 14.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.0 ast per 40 min; 14.06 PER | Player card
• Athletic wing with very slight build. Handles ball well for size and sees floor.
• Very good moving without ball. Overrated shooter but makes free throws.
• Moves well on D; quick enough to check 1s. Eviscerated in strength matchups.
Our J.A. Adande came up with an archetype called "shooters who can't shoot" -- i.e., players with a reputation as good distance shooters even though they aren't terribly accurate. Fernandez has to be near the top of the list -- he made 32.1 percent of his 3s last season and is at 36.4 percent for his career. Over his past two seasons he's shot a gruesome 37.4 percent total.
There's a reason for this. Fernandez struggles keeping his balance on his jumper, almost always drifting to one side or another depending on which way his momentum is going, and that tends to throw off what is a very accurate release when he's set (witness his 85.5 percent career free throw mark).
What Fernandez can do is handle the ball and create, although he didn't have many opportunities to do so in Portland. He has very good court vision off the dribble and ranked sixth among shooting guards in pure point rating. He also draws fouls with his off-ball movement and quick drives, and that left him with a halfway-respectable TS% despite his miserable shooting percentage.
Defensively, Fernandez becomes more valuable the quicker and lighter the opponent. He had productive stretches against J.J. Barea in the playoffs, checking him closer than you might expect and getting away with it. But he's best off switching men with a big point guard; against traditional 2s he can get flattened because it's such a strength mismatch. Although it was a small sample, opposing point guards had only a 13.5 PER against Fernandez. Now that he's been traded to Dallas, he has the perfect cohort for that strategy in Jason Kidd, and may be able to check point guards much more often.
COREY BREWER, SG
Projection: 15.0 pts, 4.4 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 11.40 PER | Player card
• Slender, athletic wing defender. Great in passing lanes. Fouls too much.
• Horrifying half-court offensive player. Can hardly dribble without falling down.
• Must upgrade catch-and-shoot game. Positive locker room guy -- always smiling.
Brewer went back to shooting bricks in 2010-11 after showing some signs of developing a reliable perimeter game the previous season. That said, the perception of his decline was far greater than the reality -- his other stats hardly changed, and he partly offset the shooting decline by drawing more fouls.
Still, his offense might be charitably described as a work in progress. Brewer shot 26.8 percent on 3s and 33.3 percent on long 2s, and those comprised nearly half his shots. The shot mix is unlikely to change because Brewer is such a lousy ball handler, so he has to develop a reliable catch-and-shoot game and take his wayward dribbling out of the equation. It also might help Brewer to get more minutes as a 3, which might be a better long-term position for him. Minnesota played him mostly as a 2, and that only further exposed his low skill level.
Defensively, Brewer's antenna for steals is remarkable. He was second among shooting guards in steals per minute and has become very opportunistic at stealing inbound passes when opponents aren't paying attention. With his length and quickness, he could emerge as a wing stopper. However, his lack of strength and overaggressive play contribute to a very high foul rate -- only three shooting guards were whistled more often.
DOMINIQUE JONES, SG
No projection | Player card
• Big, strong wing who rebounds very well for his size. Good passer.
• Quick and can get to basket, but outside shot needs improvement.
• Physical player but a B athlete. Unclear what offensive role he can fill.
Jones barely got on the floor for Dallas, playing only 135 minutes in his rookie season. He showed his one definitive NBA skill, rebounding, by grabbing 7.4 boards per 40 minutes, but shot 31.1 percent from the floor and didn't make a 3-pointer.
In 10 D-League games, it was a similar story. Jones got to the basket, set up teammates and drew fouls, but at a high cost in turnovers. His rebounding wasn't quite as phenomenal, and considering the level of competition, his overall performance was pretty borderline. He'd be best served by going to a bad team and playing 1,000 minutes off the bench, but on this roster he'll have to prove himself defensively and show he can make a few spot-up 3s to earn minutes in a crowded backcourt.