[EricaLubarsky]

it's funny that you think you are dunking on me when you're not.

1) At the time you posted, the Mavs were 12th and were 3-3 (playing .500 ball). You posted that we we had a "good chance" to keep the pick. At 12th and playing .500 ball (3-3), we were heading to a 7.2% chance of keeping the pick. I disagreed because 7.2% is not a "good chance" to me. Those stats you post (and cherry-pick) don't use the sudden swing, but that's how stats work. The trend line can (and does) change with a 1-6 run, but time matters and you are so disingenuous that you are trying to make a flawed argument by removing the context of time. If someone is healthy and young, it would be foolish to claim that they'd die young. If they die young, you don't get to criticize people who predicted a long life when at the time all indicators were pointing that way.

2) If we lose today, assuming all possibilities are equally likely like 3-0 being as likely as 0-3 (which they are not), then we have above a 50% chance of keeping the pick. Thanks for correcting me though. I do enjoy being corrected when I am not wrong.

3) I never "pushed" a narrative that we were going to lose the pick. I disagreed with you on the phrase "good chance" because the present outlook and the projected future outlook were not looking good. Of course, the sudden 1-6 swing has you feeling pretty cocky, because yes if we lose today we are more likely than not to keep the pick. No one could have predicted that swing, but the swing has changed the outlook which is why I have been posting probabilities and updates in the draft thread as the possibility of keeping the pick has skyrocketed. When situations change, it is okay to change opinions. I have changed my tune and you are still dwelling on posts from weeks ago. Maybe you are just hurt that I disagreed with you weeks ago. I'm personally happy that the outlook of 2-3 weeks ago has changed in our favor. I think we absolutely need the pick.

I do find it hilarious that you correct my lack of "nuance" with a post totally lacking nuance and context to attack the "boogeyman" that is EL.

Anyway, you're still here. Post if you want. Leave if you want. I don't give a shit. If you come at me, though, I don't have to take it and can correct the record. There aren't other mods around and I haven't used my mod powers in months and I'm clapping back as a private poster. If you like DM.com and hate me that much, then just ignore me. If you hate DM that much, then absolutely go to Reddit. You're not a toddler and no one gives a shit if you take your ball and go home. You're an adult (I'm assuming). Do what makes you happy.