Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
I think you misread. Mavs aren't barely in the top 8. Grizzlies are. They are only one game ahead of the Lakers and 2 games ahead of the Hornets. One game
I mean, ending up 9 (and drafting 9-11) isn't off the table. If the Mavs pulled out 7-24 with one of the easiest schedules in the league and Grizz went 4-29 (and the rest were equally bad), we could hypothetically do it.
Ending the season 5-6 (and potentially drafting 7-8) is much more likely when you look at injuries, strength of remaining schedule, and current trends. I'd wager $10 that the Suns draft better. Bulls/Nets/Grizz have a chance too, but Suns are almost a lock to.
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You're right, I inserted a we in there & read it as Mavs are now barely in the bottom 8.
Ending up 9th isn't off the table. I think one of the reasons I think of you as a pessimist is you list the Mavs could fall to 10th or 11th, if they wind up with the 9th worst record, but you don't mention that they could also still have a top 3 pick.
I'm a gambler, so I'd take action on that Suns bet, but you'd have to lay me odds. I'd take it straight up if the Mavs lose to the Suns on Wed night, but otherwise, I agree with you that the Suns are favored. They're a smarter organization when it comes to tanking & while I cheer my little heart out for the Mavs to lose & finish in that top 3, I know this team isn't smart when it comes to that & they worry about pieces like Barea & Wes and crap that they shouldn't worry about.
On the part in bold, you're missing the part about the others being equally bad. There's a lot of Eastern conference teams in competition with us for the worst record, and they all play each other several more times this season. Somebody has to take those Ws. Grizz can hypothetically jump ahead of us, but somebody in the East is going to fall behind.
Edit: If the Grizz go 4-29 the rest of the way, they'd play at a .121 winning pct rate, which would be the 3rd worst winning pct in NBA history (if you extrapolated it over the course of a full season). Those are the kinda long odds you're talking about when you present these worst case scenarios.
I mean, ideally the Mavs players would just all fail to do anything on Wednesday, fail to score a basket & force the Suns to win. But, the NBA would step in & there would be severe punishment for doing something like that. People believe the NBA league office was involved in Sam Hinkie stepping down in Philly. I think the teams will at least try, they'll be tanking, but they'll back into a couple of wins. I think they'd rather be drafting 2 or 3 spots lower than have the NBA league office come down on them. The NBA league office is very concerned about tanking. That's one of Adam Silver's big concerns.