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With Ted Kennedy's shameful statement that Iraq will be Bush's Vietnam (which, of course means our Vietnam), and the violence unleashed by both the Baathists and Iran's proxy, Sadr, the door to the Tet Syndrome has been opened.
Here are the signs of the Tet Syndrome:
* Statements by pundits that we are losing the war in Iraq.
* A strong focus on American casualties by the mainstream press.
* Adjectives in the news like "failed," "unexpected," "foolish".
* Mentions of Vietnam in headlines and text, and by the president’s political opposition.
* Specials with titles like "Iraq - Can We Ever Win?” or “Iraq, Bush’s Vietnam?"
* Calls to find an "honorable way out" from Democrats.
* A focus on civilian casualties after the battle is over.
What is the Tet Syndrome?
The Tet Syndrome occurs when, in light of an escalation of violence by the enemy, our will to fight is rapidly eroded by biased and inaccurate reporting coupled with misleading attacks on our strategy by political opponents of the President, pundits and radicals. It starts with spectacular and violent enemy attacks in which the American casualty rate temporarily spikes or atrocities against Americans are widely shown.
What are the Results of the Tet Syndrome?
The enemy hopes to win by damaging the will of the Americans. Today, Al Sadr, Iran, Baathists and assorted terrorist groups including Al Qaeda hope to drive Americans out of Iraq by destroying our political will to stay. Failing that, they hope to damage Bush’s re-election chances in hopes of electing a less determined president, which is how they view Kerry, especially in light of his post-Vietnam behavior. In the Vietnam War, the Tet Syndrome won the war for the enemy.
What is Really Going On in Iraq
There are several groups in Iraq who wish to attack the US in order to seize power. One is the Sunni Baathist dead-enders who hope to regain their position of privilege. Another is the young Shiite cleric Al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army (reminiscent of the Mahdi Rebellion in Sudan in the 1884). Al-Sadr is closely allied with Iran’s extremist government and has announced an alliance with the Iran proxy Hezbollah terrorist organization. In addition, a number of terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, view democracy in Iraq as a major threat to their fanatic aims.
The U.S. is in the middle of a troop exchange, which is both good and bad. It means there are extra troops available, but there is likely a disrupted command and control structure and logistical system.
Neither the Baathists (who are currently the target in the Marine besieged city of Fallujah) nor Sadr's Mahdi Army represent a significant military threat. Sadr’s army is likely to be destroyed quickly by main force action. Sadr is hiding in the most sacred shrine of the Shia, which makes his arrest a difficult problem. However, Sadr is not well respected in Shiite Iraq, where Ayatollah Systani holds almost all power. It is possible that Shias themselves will ultimately remove Sadr from his hideout.
What is the Danger Today?
The threat is that events in Iraq will be used by domestic enemies of Bush (including much of the media) to discredit his position, forcing an alteration that will prevent an Iraqi democracy or will otherwise be perceived by Islamists as a victory for themselves. This will greatly increasing the terrorist danger to the United States and the nuclear threat from Iran.
Another danger is that Bush will lose the election, bringing into power one of the key figures involved in exploiting the Vietnam Syndrome in the ‘70s, John Kerry, who met with the enemies of the US and then urged unconditional surrender in a widely publicized Senate appearance. Our enemies know this and are looking forward to an administration run by him.
Okay, Why is this called the “Tet Syndrome?”
In Vietnam during the early 1968 Tet holidays, the Viet Cong launched a truce-breaking surprise nationwide assault against American and allied troops and South Vietnamese population centers. The assault for the first time penetrated formerly safe cities like Saigon, bringing the war to the view of rear area journalists and pundits. Because this truce-breaking attack was not predicted (militarily it was insane), because of Lyndon Johnson’s policy of over-positive reporting of the situation, and because of the media’s completely incompetent reading of the military situation, the impression was permanently implanted in the media’s world view that the situation in Vietnam was hopeless and the U.S. military was lying when it said otherwise. This view spread rapidly to many Americans.
The military result of this offensive (and two lesser ones in the same year) was the total destruction of the Viet Cong, a great military victory for the United States, which resulted in the demotion of North Vietnam’s famous “genius,” General Giap.
But more important were the domestic consequences in the United States, The switch by the media to an active anti-war viewpoint greatly empowered the anti-war movement and deceived most Americans about the actual status of the war. It quickly used up the political capital available for prosecuting the war, forcing Nixon to run on a “bring the troops home” platform. It caused such an increase in cynicism and distrust of the government that many Americans (including those in the press) chose to believe the enemy rather than their own government. This cynicism, an inflamed political climate, and Nixon’s habit of cover-up also led to Watergate, which further destroyed the U.S. confidence.
After Tet, the the US cemented its victory with the successful Vietnamization and Phoenix programs. In 1972, the North Vietnamese launched a massive “Easter Offensive,” which was readily defeated by South Vietnamese forces aided by United States air support, with no US ground troops. This victory was so significant that the North required 3 years to rebuild its internal forces enough to try again. During this same period, as a result of the Tet Syndrome, the US pulled out all forces, a Democratic congress banned US participation in Southeast Asia and Congress eliminated the military material assistance on which our strategy was predicated.
Seven years after Tet, having defeated the United States in the halls of Congress, the North conquered the supply-depleted south. In some battles, South Vietnamese soldiers had only 6 bullets each. The North invaded with more divisions and personnel than the US now has in its entire military and using more armor than George Patton had in World War II.
The ultimate result of the Tet Syndrome was the betrayal of our ally, great damaged to our society, and strengthening of our enemies throughout the world,