[jthig32]

Intersting article from Hollinger below. The stuff about Orlando's poker game seems spot on. I don't think it's a coincidence that they announced that they were matching Gortat one business day after signing Bass. They totally played us.

However, Hollinger's contention that losing Gortat is a major blow to the Mavs' prospects next season is ridiculous. The difference between Damp and Gortat playing minutes next season was not going to be significant, and I've obviously made it clear that I didn't think Gortat was going to bring an immediate significant upgrade.

And as I've already been preaching this evening, I think a true center is going to play less than 30 minutes a game this season for the Mavs. So for the third time, I think the impact of losing Gortat is going to be felt AFTER this season, not so much during it.

One of the fun games-within-a-game of free agency is the poker match. Knowing who's serious, who's bluffing, who's just trying to up the ante and what's in everyone else's hand is just as important in this game as it is at the tables in Vegas.

We saw a perfect example today, as a spectacular piece of card playing by Magic general manager Otis Smith left the Mavericks slack-jawed, while once again illustrating the dangers of signing offer sheets early in the free-agent period.

Smith shocked nearly everyone by matching Dallas' five-year, $34 million offer sheet to Marcin Gortat, the Polish backup center who is unlikely to play more than 10 minutes a game next season because he's backing up all-world center Dwight Howard. Fans haven't seen much of Gortat because he's stuck behind Howard, but the dude can play -- he's mobile, rebounds well and can score. But between salary and luxury tax, Gortat will cost the Magic close to $12 million this year, which is nearly a maximum salary.
When Dallas presented the offer sheet, Smith said he wanted all seven days to make up his mind and would have taken eight if he could have. But don't believe him. He knew exactly what he was going to do all along.

Every good team does -- in preparation for free agency, it runs through all the scenarios of what another team might offer its players, and if so whether it would match. The Magic almost certainly knew on July 1 whether they were matching this deal; they just didn't let everyone else in on the secret until today.
In fact, it's quite likely they sprinkled some leaks indicating that they wouldn't match; surely it was believable given their status as a luxury-tax team in an old arena in a small market. Why pay so much more for a secondary piece?

But if they already knew they were matching, it was a brilliant stroke, because it allowed them to get a second player at a discount price. Remember, Gortat isn't the only big man Orlando inked this week -- the Magic also signed Brandon Bass to a four-year, $18 million deal. And Bass, you'll surely remember, played for the Mavericks last season.

By making Dallas believe that they wouldn't match the offer for Gortat, they were able to throw the Mavs off the scent of Bass. At the time, the Mavs were thinking letting Bass go to the Magic would eliminate any chance of losing Gortat. Here's what The Dallas Morning News reported at the time: "The Mavericks stepped aside in negotiations for Bass, allowing him to sign with the Magic. His presence with the Magic virtually guarantees that Marcin Gortat will be a Maverick. He signed an offer sheet … and Orlando has until next week to match the offer … The Mavericks are no longer worried about that possibility."
Psych! This is Lucy pulling the football out from Charlie Brown, folks. Orlando created the impression that it was going to let Gortat leave, the Mavs fell for it hook, line and sinker, and as a result the Magic got to sign the player they coveted at power forward (Bass), in addition to keeping Gortat like they always knew they would.

The only drawback is that their clever little ruse was darn expensive. Gortat and Bass combine to put the Magic about $10 million over the luxury tax; next year, that figure will be closer to $20 million. For wee little Orlando to fork out that kind of money is a serious commitment, especially since its new arena is still a year away from completion. Clearly, owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob VanderWeide are willing to sacrifice a chunk of their bank account over the next two years to win a title, and the people of Orlando shouldn't take this for granted -- many owners wouldn't do the same.

And in case you get any sneaky ideas, remember that Gortat can't be traded until Dec. 15, can't be traded without his consent for a full year, and can't be traded to Dallas at all until next summer. So don't think the Magic are holding Gortat for ransom -- the rules on offer sheets are set up to avert those kinds of shenanigans. This is strictly a buy-and-hold maneuver.

One has to wonder where the spending spree will end for the Magic. They're still sitting on a mammoth trade exception from the Hedo Turkoglu deal; I've been under the impression there was no chance they'd use it and add further to their tax bill, which is why I criticized their making the deal. But if I'm mistaken and they have the green light to spend, that changes everything -- they can take on another mammoth contract and might be strongly tempted to at the trade deadline.

Nonetheless, their summer work is likely all but done. They still have a small portion of their midlevel exception left and may pursue another guard from the free-agent flotsam later this summer, but with a powerful 10-man rotation under contract they'll probably just add a couple of minimum vets, possibly re-sign holdover Tyronn Lue as a third point guard, and call it a day.

Meanwhile, the Mavs are left high and dry by today's news. They had planned for Gortat to start at center and let Bass, last season's primary frontcourt backup, leave because of it. Now Dallas has to scrounge through the free-agent leftovers because the Mavs basically lost two weeks waiting for the Magic to stick it to them.

In the meantime possible solutions like Chris Andersen, Paul Millsap, Antonio McDyess, Channing Frye, Zaza Pachulia and Rasheed Wallace have inked deals with other teams; so too, of course, has Bass. Armed only with the midlevel exception, the Mavs don't appear to be in David Lee's price range, leaving them poring over the likes of Glen Davis, Rasho Nesterovic, Joe Smith, Hakim Warrick and Chris Wilcox with their midlevel bucks; that's a pretty jarring step down.

Dallas' best move at this point is likely to go after Davis and hope the Celtics won't match since they already signed Wallace; of course, the once-bitten Mavs may be twice shy on this front.
Another option would be to acquire a big man in a trade, or perhaps in a sign-and-trade. Unfortunately, Dallas used most of its trade chips to acquire Shawn Marion last week; the best asset it has left is Greg Buckner's partially guaranteed $4 million deal, but that can't be used in a package because he was just traded from Memphis, so the most he could bring back is a $5.1 million player.

The only really good asset left, actually, is Josh Howard. He appears to be squeezed by the addition of Marion, and trade rumors have been swirling around him for a while. Because of his team option for next season, he'd also give whatever team acquired him flexibility to jump into the 2010 free-agent chase if it so chose.

Wherever the Mavs go from here, they don't look nearly as strong on paper as they would have if they had wrested Gortat from Orlando … especially since the Magic bluffed them out of Bass along the way. All that happy news I wrote last week about them rivaling San Antonio for second-best in the West is dripping in cold water right now; they still need frontcourt help and that's the hardest help to find.

As for the Magic, their smooth move at the poker table got them an expensive insurance policy on Dwight Howard, and a second frontcourt body capable of matching up with the likes of Shaquille O'Neal, Andrew Bynum and Kendrick Perkins in the playoffs. Perhaps that isn't worth $12 million a year, but it's worth something … and with the Magic going all-out in pursuit of a title, they'll pay whatever it takes to win a hand.