[Underdog]

My biggest problem with the way the lottery turned out is that it doesn't make conversation about who we'll pick any easier... Obviously if you end up in the top-3, it's just a question of which player you add to the Ayton/Doncic mix. Pretty easy... But at #5, basically anyone except Ayton/Doncic could be sitting there, so there are a bunch of possibilities.

Assuming Ayton and Doncic go to the Suns and Kings, since both players make a ton of sense for either team:

Atlanta -- they need a rim protector in the worst way, so JJJ or Bamba would be a good fit here. I suppose they could pick Bagley if they value his scoring so much that they don't mind playing him at center next to John Collins for one of the worst defensive front courts in the league, but they could always address rim protection later... Also, Schroder is demanding a trade, so Trae Young could be the dark horse of the draft (there have been rumors that Atlanta might even trade down)... This is one of the trickier teams to figure out right now, and the one most likely to throw chaos into the draft. I think the safe/smart pick is JJJ, but I could see Young as well -- it really depends on what kind of package Schroder brings back in a trade.

Memphis -- do they start rebuilding, or do they go all-in on trying to get back to the playoffs with Gasol/Conley over the next couple years? Why not both? Marvin Bagley makes too much sense here, as Memphis scored the second-least PPG last season. He could give them a shot in the arm on offense, and can hide a bit on defense as he learns to improve that part of his game... If he's already off the board, then Jackson Jr. makes a lot of sense as a floor-stretcher, allowing Gasol to operate down low more, plus their front court defense would be ridiculous... The Grizzlies probably don't overthink this, likely removing Bagley from the board if he isn't already gone.

So Ayton and Doncic will be long gone by the time we pick, and the only way I see Bagley slipping to us is if Atlanta/Memphis go Trae/JJJ, so he's likely off the board as well... And if Atlanta doesn't pick Trae or Bamba, then JJJ is probably gone too... There's always a possibility that the Hawks trades down to get Trae, but it's likely that their trade parter is gunning for Bagley, which leaves Memphis taking JJJ.

So I'm fairly certain that Ayton/Doncic/Bagley/JJJ will be the top 4 picks in the draft, which means we'll probably be choosing between Porter, Bamba, and Bridges... But who knows? Porter could impress enough to move up the board, same with Bamba. The only player I feel 100% confident about being there at #5 is Mikal Bridges (and for good reason).