[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dalmations202

The political systems do not have to disarm the Hezbollah. They have a police force in the neighboring country of Israel that would be fine with not shedding innocent blood, and just shedding the blood of the terrorist. The leadership of Lebanon would have to work with Israel temporarily though to make this happen. At least till they had built the strength to do it themselves. I am not sure Lebanon will ever be able to work with Israel though.

I'm not sure that the israelis have ANY desire to attempt to "police" the south lebanon area. yes, they do want to see the area rid of the terrorist, yes they do want to see the area rid of the militia. the problem is they (and for all intent everybody but the terrorist themselves) have an almost impossible task of determining just who is a hezbollah terrorist and who isn't. remember, there is two sides to hezbollah- the military terrorist side and the social services side.

Unfortunately you are correct in that it is not that simple. They would basically be where Iraq is now -- having widespread terrorism happening inside their own borders for a while. The only way they can become independant though, and control their own destiny is to control their borders, and control the people within them.

that is indeed the dilemna, or perhaps the irony. while there is truly almost no other recourse israel could pursue when their citizens were murdered and abducted other than to strike back, by striking back they have pushed the civilians of lebanon further into support for hezbollah. by striking at the physical infrastructure of lebanon and reducing the capability of the terrorist to get fighters and arm reinforcements, they reduce the capability of the lebanese government to govern. by striking at the country of lebanon, they reduce the remote chance that the government of lebanon would actually work in conjunction with israel to acheive tehir mutual goals.

Winners -- NONE -- I wouldn't even say Iran will be a winner, because if things go the wrong way for them, then they are into a war they can't win.

I see iran as the winner for all the above- israel is seen as using excess amount of force, the us is seen as unwilling to restrain israel and protect civilians, the government of lebanon is seen as an ineffective state unable to provide security foir its population, the governments of egypt and jordan are seen as weak for not standing up to the perceived israeli agression, and iran's proxies, hezbollah, look like they are the only ones to stand up to the israelis and "defend' the shia. all the while the iranians don't actually have the blood of the innocent dead on their hands even though they are elbow deep in it.

not a good scene.