[grndmstr_c]

I hadn't really taken a look at the individual stats and specific statistical areas in which Detroit had been enjoying success this season until the Christmas game when the announcers noted that Detroit was shooting 40% from three as a team for the season. Hearing that surprised the heck out of me since they've only got one heavy minute player on that team who could be considered a real threat from long range (Billups). And the figure has only gone up since that game, as they've now at 41% from three for the year.

Now, I won't try to argue that it's unreasonable to expect offensive systems to have different success rates, but it's one thing to set up an offense so that the most efficient three point shooters take most of the three point shots, and an entirely different thing to turn unexceptional three point shooters into all-world marksmen. And the fact of the matter is that Detroit's gaudy record this season has been predicated very heavily on the latter, which makes me somewhat skeptical that it's going to continue.

To the nitty gritty, then. Here are the current 3pt fga and 3pt% stats for 05/06 for every Piston player who's taken a three pointer this season, as well as the career 3pt% for the same group:

Player.....3pt fga.....3pt%.....career 3pt%
Hamilton.....36........47.2%......30.9%
Billups........132.......45.5%......38.4%
Prince.........62........35.5%......36.1%
Sheed........116.......43.1%......33.8%
Ben.............1..........0%..........12.9%
Evans..........46........37%.........33.6%
Arroyo.........1..........0%..........31.2%
Delfino........12.........8.3%.......21.3%
Darko..........1...........0%.........0%

What immediately jumps out is that all the major three point takers with the exception of Prince, who's pretty close to his career average, are having career years. So what I'm curious about is just how many points per game the Pistons are getting out of all these absurd shooting performances.

For the same nine guys, here are the total number of points they've contributed through three pointers this season, followed by the total number of points they would have contributed through three pointers had they all taken the same number of attempts but converted at their career percentages:

Player.....actual points.....points by career %
Hamilton.....51................33
Billups........180...............152
Prince.........66................67
Sheed........150...............118
Ben.............0..................0
Evans..........51................46
Arroyo.........0..................0
Delfino.........3..................8
Darko...........0..................0

For those keeping score, that's an extra 77 points over and above what the career averages suggest Detroit should be getting in terms of three point production based on their actual shot distribution. Of course, it wouldn't be fair to suggest that they'd lose all 77 of those points if they were all shooting their career averages, since some of those 26 or so extra misses would turn into offensive rebounds. So let's assume that 1/3rd of the missed threes would turn into second chance opportunities, which would in turn be converted at a rate of 1 point per extended posession. That leaves us with an estimate of ~68 extra points - about 2.6 points per game or 3 points per 100 possessions - that Detroit has gotten this season off their hot shooting. That figure is particularly significant when you consider that Detroit's scoring differential this season is, you guessed it, 3 points per 100 possessions better than the Mavs (going off knickerblogger's stats). What's the point of all this? I have a growing suspicion that Detroit's start is to some extent fools gold. They're an elite team; no doubt about that. But I think the odds are against them continuing to play the role of pace setters the way they've done so far. It'll be interesting to see how long they're going to be able to keep it up, and how quickly they'll come back to the pack when the law of averages kicks in.