Quote:
Originally Posted by BPo001
Everyone is assuming KD comes back to be the best player the the NBA. It will be interesting to see how he looks when he returns from his injury. I still think he will be a really good scorer, but won’t be a top 3 player in the league.
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It's still a good wager.
For teams like the Mavs, Brooklyn, and now the Knicks-- teams that aren't free agent meccas, then there are very few ways to get a superstar.
1) Draft - the odds are surprisingly low for lottery picks. While the first overall pick has over a 50% chance of netting a star (based on historical stats), very few superstars come out of the draft. Only about 1 of 10 top 5 picks become superstars so you can draft in the top five for a decade without ever getting a transcendant talent.
2) Trades - Lakers are a destination for FAs, but they still spent basically a decade of draft picks to get AD. That's a lot. Getting a superstar via trade is fairly rare and always expensive.
3) Something like this. Sure you may spend 164 million on a guy who may never return to the same form, but if he drops to merely being a star, you're still doing okay. If he comes back as a top 3-5 player in the league, then you absolutely pulled off a major coup and something that basically statistically never happens.