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When Phil Jackson took over for Doug Collins, he hadn't done any of the above. He simply took over a team that hadn't quite reached the pinnacle yet, and took them to the next level. That said, I don't think this argument holds much water. >>



I'll take your word on it. Doug Collins also had Michael Jordan from lottery pick in 84 till 89 when he was replaced. Their record from 84-89 was:

84 - 38-44
85 - 30-52
86 - 40-42
87 - 50-32
88 - 47-35
Then Jackzen
89 - 55-27
90 - 61-21 Champions

So when Nellie goes DOWN in wins you can certainly make a good case for going in another direction, until then enjoy the ride, I know I will. Even making a knee-jerk reaction to even this years playoff run might seem pre-mature. >>



Good post Dude.

I have a few questions for the those who want to replace Nellie now and are using the Phil Jackson replacing Doug Collins as an example of why it would be good. If Phil had replaced Doug a year earlier, would the Bulls have won their 1st championship a year earlier? Could they have beaten the Pistons and Blazers that year or would they have still needed another year for the players and team to mature? If Phil had actually won less games the Doug the previous year would Phil have still kept his job long enough to coach the Bulls to the 1st of 6 NBA titles?

Let's say we replace Nellie with Jr. this year and Jr. can't take us to the WCF. Do we fire Jr. during the summer? Or do we give him a year to prove himself? Let's say we give him a year and at this point next year we are 20-10 instead of 25-5. That's still a very good record, but a step backward. Do we then fire Jr. Ok let's say that we do (gotta keep somewhat with the knee jerk theme here) and replace him with AJ. AJ can't get us to the WCF. We fire him in the summer because he didn't take us to the WCF. We then hire one of Rick Adelmans assistants to coach off of the back-to-back champion Kings. The 1st 30 games we go 16-14 as players struggle to learn the nuances of their 4th coach is 2 years. We fire him.

This isn't best case scenario, but it isn't worst case either. You fire Nellie when the Mavs are doing great and when we hit the 1st substantial slump as a team just watch and see how players chemistry will be.

Also, consider this: we may need to put Raef in the doghouse for a year to get him to where he needs to be. Next year might be the year for us. We could win no matter who is coaching. We could only win if Jr. is coaching. We could only win if Nellie is coaching. The odds are in favor of keeping Nellie as long as the team continues to improve. Once improvement plateaus or declines does the risk of change begin to become attractive.

Thank goodness Jerry Krause isn't making the decision for the Mavs.