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Five Years Later, Nowitzki's Game Elevated

By John Hollinger
ESPN.com

MIAMI -- In the 2006 Finals, Dirk Nowitzki averaged 22.8 points per game, but he shot only 39 percent as the Mavericks fell in six games.

In 2011, Nowitzki is doing a number on the Heat, just as he does everyone in the postseason. Not only is he scoring 27.0 points per game, but he's shot better (43.9 percent,) and done it in fewer minutes.

Moreover, he's done better in bigger moments. Nowitzki's lingering memory from the 2006 Finals will be the two free throws he missed in the fourth quarter of Game 3, fueling Miami's rally from 13 down. In this series, on the other hand, he had late layups to claim both Games 2 and 4 for his side.

Before we get too deep, we should point out that the differences stem, at least in part, from circumstances beyond his control. We might have a very different perception of Nowitzki's 2006 Finals, for instance, if the long-forgotten crazy fadeaway he hit over Shaq in Game 5 had been followed by a Miami turnover instead of by Dwyane Wade's two game-winning free throws. Similarly, Nowitzki's key layup with 14 seconds left in Game 4 of this series only attained that status with the aid of Wade missing a potential tying free throw of his own.

Those two plays heavily color the narrative -- Dallas is up 3-2 in this series and down 3-2 in 2006, rather than the opposite.

Nonetheless, there IS a difference. Empirically, Nowitzki is having a better Finals than he did five years ago, and the difference becomes even greater if you adjust for a) his shooting 6-for-19 while under the weather in Game 4, and b) for his playing fewer minutes than in 2006.

Saturday, I asked the protagonists from 2006 about it. Why is Dirk performing better against Miami in this go-round?

"Actually I haven't shot the ball as well as I want to," said Nowitzki. "I had some good looks, they just didn't go down."

OK, Dirk, but enough about your erratic jumper. Seriously -- why the improvement?

"I think my teammates are a big part of that [difference]. J-Kidd is able to give the ball in situations where I want it. (Side note: We seriously don't have a better nickname for a Hall of Fame point guard than "J-Kidd?") We got some good shooters around me. Tyson [Chandler] in the middle and [Brendan] Haywood have been great stepping in. So I don't have to force any shots if they're not there. Just swing it, run another pick-and-roll."

"So just experience, I guess, is a big factor."

"I think primarily it's the same coverages we were seeing then," said Jason Terry, the only Maverick who was with Nowitzki in 2006. "They try to take you of what you do and make you play to the weak side."

Dwyane Wade, the only Heat player besides Udonis Haslem who was here for the 2006 Finals, said, "He's 7 foot, he's going to get enough good looks. We're just trying to make it as tough for him as much as possible" (Wade, as Miami coach Erik Spoelstra did earlier this series, also amused the mathematicians by claiming that Nowitzki will get his average every night).

Mavs coach Rick Carlisle, on the other hand, said the comparison has changed because of all the roster shifts by both sides. "The rosters are 95 percent different. A lot of the dynamics are very different. Haslem is still here, so he's still playing the same way he played then. [But] I don't know that there's a lot I can give you on that."

The most telling answer, however, may have come from Spoelstra.

"Some of the schemes we used back then, he's seen so often now that he picks those apart."

Bingo.

In the 2006 Finals, Miami essentially rewrote the book on how to defend Nowitzki after he'd torn apart San Antonio and Phoenix in the previous two playoff rounds. Play physical, push him off the free-throw line as much as possible, force him right, and make him a driver.

Dirk adjusted to all that a long time ago, as well as the different looks Miami showed him on the weak side. He's become a lot more comfortable with pushing and contact, and at the same time the league has become a lot less forgiving of defenders who do such things.

"He has much better poise now versus double-teams," said Spoelstra. "In terms of creating a shot, even in traffic, he's able to that much more efficiently. He's better in the post than he was then."

I'll add that a few variables have changed on Miami's side too. The uniform may say "Haslem," for instance, but the 2011 version that is coming off a six-month layoff and still struggling to explode off an injured foot is not quite of the same ilk as the 2006 version. And Miami also relieved Haslem with James Posey -- the kind of smaller, wiry-strong defender that typically has had the most success against Dirk. Now they're trying Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh as the alternate defenders, with less success.

Add it all up, and it's been a much more successful run through the first five games of the Finals for Dallas' star. Throw in a light sprinkle of good fortune, and Nowitzki is one game away from having far happier memories from this Finals than of 2006.

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