Not mansplaining -- just correcting someone who has no nuance, is emotionally volatile, and only speaks in extremes.
As is typically the case with misinformed people, you are also inconsistent and whiny.
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Missing the playoffs will not guarantee we keep the pick. In fact, we are almost guaranteed to NOT keep the pick.
Statistically, we are unlikely to drop out of the play-in. Assuming we lose the play-in and thus miss the playoffs, we would have roughly a 4% chance of a top-10 pick, which means a 95-96% chance that New York gets a 13th/14th pick.
It is statistically possible to drop out of the play-in as well, but...
A) We are unlikely to lose the tanking race against the Lakers (no LeBron, unhappy Davis), Blazers, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs. Lakers are better, but without LeBron they are nothing. I don't think we can beat the other four teams in tankage.
B) Even if we did get to 11th, it only gets us a 9% chance of keeping the pick. In other words, a 91% chance Knicks gets a very nice 11th/12th pick.
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
I don't think you have that right. Good chance? In modern English, that usually means more than 50%
1st round exit - 0% chance of keeping our pick
14th (and lose play-in) - 2.4% chance of keeping pick
13th (and lose play-in) - 4.7% chance of keeping pick
12th - 7.2% chance of keeping pick
11th - 9.4% chance of. keeping pick
10th - 13.9% chance of keeping pick
It's unlikely we can even get to 10th worst record in the league, but even then we have an 86.1% chance of giving the pick to New York. I don't think I'd call that a "good chance"
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