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StatsCube: How the Mavs and Heat handle close-out situations

Dirk Nowitzki in close-out situations
This is Dirk Nowitzki's 23rd playoff series, and he's won 12 of the previous 22. Nowitzki's team is just 12-7 when they have a chance to close out a series, but they've never lost any of those series in which they failed to close out the first chance they got.
Three of the seven losses came against Portland in 2003, when the Mavs went up 3-0, then needed a seventh game to finish off the Blazers. Nowitzki is 4-0 in Game 7s, and also won a deciding Game 5 in his first playoff series in 2001, when the first round was still a best-of-five format. That one (in Utah) and one of his Game 7 victories (in San Antonio in 2006) came on the road.

Nowitzki's scoring average in close-out games isn't much different than in other playoff games, but he's rebounded better and been more efficient.

Rick Carlisle in close-out situations
This is Rick Carlisle's 18th playoff series as a head coach, and he's won 10 of the previous 17. Carlisle's teams are 10-3 in close-out situations and have never lost any of those series. Two of the losses came in Carlisle's first playoff series with Detroit in 2002, when the Pistons went up 2-0, but needed a deciding Game 5 to beat the Raptors.

Carlisle's teams are 3-0 in deciding Game 5s or Game 7s overall, including one win on the road. That came with the Pacers in Game 7 of the 2005 first round in Boston.

So neither Nowitzki nor Carlisle has ever lost a playoff series in which they were one win away.

LeBron James facing elimination
This is LeBron James' 17th playoff series, and he's won 11 of the previous 16. But James' teams are just 2-5 when facing elimination, and have never been able to come back and win any of those series.

The two wins came in Game 6 (at home) against Boston in 2008 and in Game 5 (at home) against Orlando in 2009. James is 0-2 in Game 7s, but both were played on the road (at Detroit in 2006 and at Boston in '08).

James' raw numbers have been better when facing elimination, but he's scored less efficiently in those situations.