For me personally, I just hate hearing the "67 wins" mantra repeated over and over as incontrovertible evidence that the Mavs were the best team in the league last year. It seems like any time someone wants to talk about weaknesses the Mavs may have--or ways they might improve, as another way of looking at it--there is always someone coming around soon to say "67," as if it means that the Mavs are perfect and don't need to do a damn thing. Oh, and when the obvious flies back at them--that the Mavs bowed out in the first round--it's always "one team." Geez.
If you will recall, there were statistical studies last year--yes, we went over them repeatedly on this board--that suggested the Mavs were overachieving with their win-loss record. What happened was that they won an extraordinary number of close ball games. The Spurs of last year actually looked better statistically, but the Mavs eked out more close wins.
So either the Mavs had a bit of luck on their side in the win-loss column, or they had a powerful and rare ability to win close games. The body of statistical evidence would claim the former, and Mavs fans of course would claim the latter. But here's the deal. The Mavs had a chance to put this rare power to the test in the postseason, specifically in Game Four against the Warriors. They didn't pull out that close game. I think you will remember Dirk's comments about that game. Being down 3-1 was deadly, and he knew it. When the Mavs most needed this ability of theirs to win close games at a statistically improbably rate, it didn't happen.
Their statistical "expected wins" last year was 61. If you want to use last year's performance as an argument about how good the Mavs were then or are now, THIS is the number you should be using. When you cite this "67" mantra, you really aren't considering the whole picture. It grates me when people don't realize this.
And this "one team" mantra? Tell it to San Antonio. Tell it to Phoenix. Look, I'm not really pessimistic about the Mavs on the whole. Rather, I believe that the Mavs are in a class of teams that includes San Antonio and Phoenix and probably another couple teams who could slide in there. I also know that the Mavs are vulnerable to losing against teams they shouldn't lose to, like Miami and Golden State. If that had happened just once, I might dismiss it as a fluke--though I still wouldn't be happy about it and I would tend to want answers. When it happens twice in a row, though, I tend to think that "fluke" is a little less likely an answer, and I want explanations even more.
I want for the Mavericks to win. I want it very much. What bothers me is that I think that maybe, just maybe, the Mavs think they are better than they are. (I *know* that plenty of fans on this board think they are better than they are.) That attitude is an engraved invitation for disaster. I remember Donald Carter saying that the biggest mistake the Mavs made, when they came within a hair's breadth of a championship in 1988, was to stand pat going forward. And I know that Dirk Nowitzki is not going be around forever. These are the years that the Mavs should be going "all in" to win a title. It's right there for the taking. This is as good a chance as they will ever get. So to see them "upgrade" by retaining George and adding Jones and Bass...well, it doesn't convince me.
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