Quote:
Originally Posted by dirno2000
The upside is that you break a big one and take control of the game. If it doesn't work you're looking at a 3rd and short in good punting position.
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And the downside is exactly what happened. Instead of a first down and being able to extend the drive, you end up punting, giving the other team all sorts of momentum when you could have easily held onto the ball for a lot longer. Good NFL teams only still only convert about 65-70% or so of their 3rd downs on 3rd and short, so it's not like punting is some rare occurrence in that situation.
When you compare that percentage with the chance that he breaks a big play -- maybe 5%, given that he had 3 defenders within 3 yards of him, including one in front of him, and he didn't have any forward momentum, I think the rational choice is clearly to get the first down.
This is all a moot point from my perspective, since it definitely look to me like he was avoiding contact, but I'm just operating under the assumption that you're correct and that wasn't what he was doing.