Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Things that excite me
DSJ's entire career
Curry showing us what he's got
Yogi coming in with a training camp
Noel playing for a new contract
Things that worry me
Dirk's health
Noel's health
Barnes playing too much
Smith having a rough transition to the NBA this year
Our defense with Dirk on the floor at center
Powell playing at all
Our lack of depth of players at center after Noel (Dirk is forced to play there because of speed, Mejri is hot and cold, Withey is a career third stringer)
that's why I can't decide between winning 33-35 games and competing for 44-48 games. Health, chemistry, and Smith's development are all big question marks. If everyone stays healthy, the chemistry gels, Curry and Barnes stay hot, Matthews goes back to 3/D and shoots 38-42% from three, and Noel has a contract year, then we are a real threat to make the playoffs and even topple a higher seed.
If we come in injured, Smith stumbles and gets tossed around by Rick, have bad chemistry with Noel, etc. then we could be looking at another lottery pick.
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Yeah, as mentioned previously, I think about 39-40 is this team's max win total unless our needle is moved greatly by multiple things from the following list that most of us aren't expecting (DSJ playing more like an all-star than just being in the ROY conversation, Dirk playing at least as well as last year if not better while staying healthy, Barnes taking another step forward and genuinely putting himself in the all-star conversation despite all the new West talent, Noel putting up something close to 14/10/2/2 - basically a line exceeding his rookie numbers - with tremendous defense and health while expanding his minutes, Wes shooting close to 40% from 3 and close to 45% overall, etc).
Any one of those things is technically possible, but I think to get in that 45+ win total and push for a playoff spot, we're going to need multiple to hit with nothing else negative hitting us (key injury, inability to finish close games with terrible last 5 minute averages, poor lineups by Carlisle leading to Dirk over exposed and 20+ games with us out-rebounded by 10-15+, etc). It's possible, but if I were a betting man, I would see us right around 40 wins and just missing the playoffs. The sad thing is that, unlike last year, we very likely don't end up with a franchise player falling to us with a 40-win draft pick and, instead of losing ONE more year to get a lineup that could really, really do something, we'll try once more for Dirk, fall short and have little to show for it (my biggest fear).
Man how I hope I'm wrong about it all. I hope we're either 50-win good and really put the fear of God in some first round opponent OR 25-30 win bad and sitting pretty come draft day with tremendous expectations the next year. Sadly, I think we'll fall right in the middle of that prediction though, not make the playoffs, not get a good player at draft night but have the "pat yourself on the back" feeling for giving it our all in what could be Dirk's final season. So torn... :/