[dirno2000]

2008-09 season: A year earlier, when Nowitzki blew up in the second half of the season, everyone attributed it to the midseason acquisition of Jason Kidd. It makes for a nice story, but he had Kidd for the whole season this time around and the same thing happened. Nowitzki scored 20 points or more in his past 25 games and averaged 26.8 a night on 51.8 percent shooting in the playoffs despite his well-documented personal travails at the time.

The Mavs found Nowitzki nearly three more shots per game, which is never a bad idea, but he was much more one-dimensional than in past seasons. His assist ratio plummeted to 8.9, ranking him below the league average for power forwards; in previous seasons he'd settled among the leaders. Fortunately, he retained his capacity to generate lots of high-percentage shots without turning the ball over. Nowitzki's miniscule 7.1 turnover rate ranked seventh among power forwards, and among players with a usage rate over 20, only Antawn Jamison and Michael Redd fared better.

Nowitzki's shot mix reveals an amazing and rare skill set. Generally, the two highest-value shots in the game are right at the basket and the 3-pointer, but Dirk hardly shoots either of them. Last season only 19.5 percent of his shots came in the immediate basket area, and despite his prowess as a long-range shooter, he took barely two 3-pointers a game, making an ordinary 35.9 percent.

However, he nailed 47.4 percent of his long 2s, and shot even better on closer-range shots. On inside shots that weren't at the basket, or "in-between" shots, Nowitzki hit 48.4 percent; this is an area in which most players shoot in the high 30s. Nowitzki's percentage was the fourth-best in the league in this range among players with at least 200 attempts, which is impressive in its own right (see Pau Gasol comment).

Additionally, he launched a staggering quantity of shots from this range. In the five years for which there is available shot-chart data, only one player had taken more than 400 in-between shots; that was Philadelphia's Andre Miller, with 413 in 2007-08. Last season Nowitzki took 580, crushing the previous high by more than two shots a game.

Nowitzki, in other words, succeeds largely by taking and making shots that nearly every other player in the league misses, and taking them in historic quantities. He's become extremely effective on short and midrange 2s, and he can create them while rarely turning the ball over. And as long as he keeps doing it, he'll remain among the game's elite offensive players.

Scouting report: Nowitzki is a deadly midrange shooter, and at 7 feet can get his shot up over nearly anybody. Because of this, most defenders crowd him aggressively and make him put the ball on the floor, but this creates a lot of driving lanes for him. Moreover, he's developed into one of the best pull-up shooters in the game; few players of his size can stop and go straight up as quickly and easily as Nowitzki does.

The Mavs like to set up him at the top of the key and have him either go one-on-one or kick out to a shooter if a double-team arrives, leaving defenses with a conundrum, given the difficulty of double-teaming in the middle of the floor. Last season it was a bit easier to guard since Dallas played so many non-scorers around him, but their revamped roster this season could make Nowitzki's life much easier.

Defensively, Nowitzki has shown steady improvement. He has a great strip move that he uses against opposing post players, so taking him to the block isn't a great idea despite his lack of muscle. However, he's only average in pick-and-roll defense, and quick 4s can give him a lot of trouble off the dribble. Additionally, he's likely to see a lot more minutes at center this year given Dallas' other additions, which could expose his lack of length and muscle.

2009-10 outlook: Although he's no spring chicken, Nowitzki's game is likely to age extremely well. Size and shooting ability are the two biggest determinants of career length, and Nowitzki is a 7-footer who stands among the best shooters of all time. He also has a lot more help in Dallas this season, which should translate into fewer shots but more assists and higher-quality looks. I'd expect slightly fewer minutes too, which means his scoring average could head back to the low 20s, but he might average four assists a game.

Nowitzki has an opt-out in his contract for the summer of 2010, and if he plays nearly as well as he did last season, he'd be foolish not to exercise it. That makes him one of the plum catches of the 2010 free-agent class, even though everyone assumes he'll stay in Dallas. At 32, it's certain to be his last major payday.