Thread: 2020 NBA Draft
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Old 08-21-2020, 06:20 PM   #79
EricaLubarsky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MFFL View Post
Sure but you'd think the Mavs would hit every ONCE in awhile. There are 2nd rounders littering the NBA but the Mavs can't seem to hit

For example, we traded our 2nd rounder to Philly for 2 later 2nds. They got a decent rotation guy in Shake Milton. We wound up cutting both of our guys within a year or so

We drafted Roby and he's accomplished nothing. Terance Mann and Tacko Fall were players in that draft that appear to be eventual fringe rotation players
I mean you can make an anecdotal argument and that's fun to do on a forum and Im not going to stop you, but statistically, you aren't justified by the data.

During the 30 years gathered, 0% of #31 picks were ever stars. 5% of picks at 31 were even really strong starters. Brunson in only his second year is already putting up numbers that would put him in the "strong starter" category.

I think people artificially inflate the chance that a pick later than 15 has, because we really have nailed it on guys like Howard But if we hit on only 1 out of 8 guys (12% chance), and the average chance of success is closer to 7%, then we are still outperforming our crappy pick position as much as naming six failures seems to be proof that we suck.

Over the last 20 years, our average draft pick was 32nd. 32nd! We literally averaged a second round pick for twenty years. According to 82games.com, at that spot, 5% of guys at that position every became stars, 0% become strong starters, 15% role players, 40% of deep bench, and 40% chance of being a complete bust or complete DNP. That's an AVERAGE of every pick we've had in the last 20 years. Top 8 picks also only net a start about 53% of the time and yet we are 3 for 3 on top eight picks in the last nearly 30 years, and not only were they stars--- all three of them are HoF-level players (Kidd, Dirk ,Doncic). It's really hard for me to fathom how people can look at the data and come away with the idea that we're bad at drafting if you actually take into account how low we drafted every single year.

Data pulled from Mavs draft history and https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 08-21-2020 at 06:29 PM.
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