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Old 02-17-2007, 04:33 PM   #65
Dr.Zoidberg
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That "Antarctic temperatures disagree with climate model predictions" isn´t right!

This circumstance is easy to explain, and you don´t quote the essentially reason for a nearly constant temperature of this region and the cooling(!) of Antarctica mainlad:

At first the temperature of the mainland of the Antarctica was not rising over the last decades. This is right. But at the same time, the peninsula Graham Land, the most northern region of the Antarctica, belongs to the continents with the highest rising temperatures (about 2,5°C in the last 50 years). Beside the (likely) global warming, the west winds, which carry a lot of heat, have increased at this time and are in this way one of the reasons for the higher temperatures they´ve measured at Graham Land.

The mainland of the Antarctica isn´t as much affected of west winds as Graham Land. Although the ozone hole is direct above the Antarctica mainland. The hole in the ozone layer is getting bigger and bigger and the decreasing concentration of ozone will lead to a decreasing absorption of the UV-light. This circumstance entails an abated warming of the stratosphere, the outer part of the Earth´s atmosphere, and because of that the interior of the country will get colder!

In conclusion, the above named facts, which you left from quoting, are leading to a neutralize of warming and cooling in that region. So this occurrence doesn´t prove anything at all. As Bromwich said: "We're looking for a small signal that represents the impact of human activity and it is hard to find it at the moment."

Here an interesting treatise of the correlations at the Antarctica and the accumulation and decline of the ice, written by Prof. Dr. David Bromwich:
http://polarmet.mps.ohio-state.edu/j..._J_Climate.pdf
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Last edited by Dr.Zoidberg; 02-18-2007 at 04:44 PM.
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