Dallas-Mavs.com Forums - View Single Post - Well-written "Nash for MVP" article by Skip Bayless

harsh euro barge · 04-19-2006, 02:05 PM

Here's a much better MVP article...

http://www.nysun.com/article/31235

By John Hollinger
April 19, 2006
A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Here's all you need to know about how close this year's NBA MVP race is: Up until about 24 hours ago, I didn't know who I was picking.

Given that today is the last day of the season, however, I finally had to make up my mind. But it isn't easy choosing among the several worthy candidates for this year's award. In particular, there are four players - Cleveland's LeBron James, Dallas's Dirk Nowitzki, the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, and Miami's Dwyane Wade - who seem to have almost nothing separating them.

Somehow, I had to split hairs among these four, and so do the voters (I don't have a ballot), which should make this one of the closest MVP votes in memory. And unlike other close votes - such as Steve Nash vs. Shaquille O'Neal last season - this one figures to be a six-car pile-up. In addition to the four players I mentioned, Nash and Detroit's Chauncey Billups have all earned serious MVP talk around the country.

Let's start by eliminating the two obvious pretenders - Nash and Billups. Billups has been the best player on the best team (Detroit), but saying he's more valuable than anyone else in basketball is just batty. Detroit's strength stems from the combined effect of five quality starters rather than a single dominant one, and even in a career year, Billups didn't sustain nearly the quality of play that the Jameses and Bryants of the world did.

Then there's Nash. He was a questionable choice when he won last year's award, and may end up winning again this year. If so, it would be about the worst vote in league history.

For starters, an MVP should, at the very least, be the best player on his own team, and it's unclear that Nash qualifies in that department. Teammate Shawn Marion leads the Suns in points, rebounds, minutes, blocks, steals, field goals, field-goal attempts, and 2-point field-goal percentage. And for all the talk of how the Suns are doomed without Nash, Marion actually has a much greater on-court vs. off-court differential, which measures what happens to a team's scoring when its star leaves the floor (+8.6 points per 48 minutes for Marion, +4.8 for Nash).

Nash's candidacy is a triumph of emotion over reason. As super as he's been, and as surprisingly well as Phoenix has played without Amare Stoudemire, we can't just give Nash all the credit for every good thing that happens to every Phoenix player - but that's the step that people are taking in anointing him MVP.

The most frequently made argument in Nash's favor is that seven Suns are having career-highs in scoring, but this one is an obvious red herring. For starters, one of those seven is Nash himself. One of the others is Marion, barely squeaking past his previous career-high (21.7 to 21.2). And four of the other five players - Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, James Jones, and Boris Diaw - are getting so much more playing time than they every saw before that it would be shocking if they weren't averaging career bests.

The seventh player, Eddie House, has legitimately boosted his scoring. We could attribute his improvement to Nash were it not for one problem: House is Nash's backup. The two are almost never on the court at the same time.

Moreover, Nash is nowhere near the top of the leaderboard in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), my per-minute rating of a player's effectiveness. He ranks 14th, well behind the legitimate MVP candidates and Marion.

Thus, while Nash has been great, and the Suns remarkable, the leap of faith required to anoint him the most valuable player in the entire league doesn't hold water.

Eliminating the two point guards leaves us with James, Nowitzki, Bryant and Wade. On the court, the best player of the four was probably Bryant. In addition to his historic 81-point game, he's also the best defensive player of the four and single-handedly carried the Lakers to a playoff spot.

Nevertheless, I can't place him higher than fourth on my ballot. One of the reasons L.A. was so talent-starved in the first place was because Bryant couldn't get along with Shaq, which kind of subtracts from the "most valuable" argument. Plus, I've yet to see a shred of evidence that any of his teammates can stand him.

The next one to eliminate is Wade. Statistically, he's been just as good as Nowitzki and James. He ranks a close fourth in PER, and despite Shaq's presence, he had the greatest on-court off-court differential in the league (a whopping +15.5). On the other hand, Wade slumped a bit down the stretch, shot 13-of-76 from three-point range on the season, and one can't help but assign him at least a smidgen of the blame for Miami's slightly disappointing campaign.

That leaves us with Dirk and Le-Bron. As you can see in the chart, they rank first and second in my PER rankings (taking it to another decimal, Le-Bron leads 28.18 to 28.16). Both also led teams that generally outperformed expectations. Dallas won 60 games despite several injuries and a lack of superstar talent beyond Nowitzki. The Cavs, meanwhile, could win their 50th game tonight despite missing Larry Hughes for half the season and getting horrendous seasons from several supporting players (Damon Jones in particular.)

James has the edge in on-court offcourt differential, +13.0 to +7.7, but we would expect that. Nowitzki was backed up by the relatively competent Keith Van Horn, while James had lowlifes like Ira Newble and Luke Jackson replacing him, so the dropoff in Dallas was much less severe.

How can I decide between these two, then? Well, if I can't differentiate on quality, I have to go with quantity. James played 42.5 minutes per game, compared to 38.1 for Nowitzki. During the course of the season, he played nearly eight full games more than Nowitzki, and there's value in that.

Add in the fact that James came up the biggest down the stretch - right when Cavs fans were wondering if they would have another late-season collapse - and that he made several plays to win games in the final seconds, and you have a recipe for a Most Valuable Player. Let's hope the voters see it the same way.

04-19-2006, 02:05 PM	#28
harsh euro barge Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 185	Here's a much better MVP article... http://www.nysun.com/article/31235 By John Hollinger April 19, 2006 A D V E R T I S E M E N T Here's all you need to know about how close this year's NBA MVP race is: Up until about 24 hours ago, I didn't know who I was picking. Given that today is the last day of the season, however, I finally had to make up my mind. But it isn't easy choosing among the several worthy candidates for this year's award. In particular, there are four players - Cleveland's LeBron James, Dallas's Dirk Nowitzki, the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, and Miami's Dwyane Wade - who seem to have almost nothing separating them. Somehow, I had to split hairs among these four, and so do the voters (I don't have a ballot), which should make this one of the closest MVP votes in memory. And unlike other close votes - such as Steve Nash vs. Shaquille O'Neal last season - this one figures to be a six-car pile-up. In addition to the four players I mentioned, Nash and Detroit's Chauncey Billups have all earned serious MVP talk around the country. Let's start by eliminating the two obvious pretenders - Nash and Billups. Billups has been the best player on the best team (Detroit), but saying he's more valuable than anyone else in basketball is just batty. Detroit's strength stems from the combined effect of five quality starters rather than a single dominant one, and even in a career year, Billups didn't sustain nearly the quality of play that the Jameses and Bryants of the world did. Then there's Nash. He was a questionable choice when he won last year's award, and may end up winning again this year. If so, it would be about the worst vote in league history. For starters, an MVP should, at the very least, be the best player on his own team, and it's unclear that Nash qualifies in that department. Teammate Shawn Marion leads the Suns in points, rebounds, minutes, blocks, steals, field goals, field-goal attempts, and 2-point field-goal percentage. And for all the talk of how the Suns are doomed without Nash, Marion actually has a much greater on-court vs. off-court differential, which measures what happens to a team's scoring when its star leaves the floor (+8.6 points per 48 minutes for Marion, +4.8 for Nash). Nash's candidacy is a triumph of emotion over reason. As super as he's been, and as surprisingly well as Phoenix has played without Amare Stoudemire, we can't just give Nash all the credit for every good thing that happens to every Phoenix player - but that's the step that people are taking in anointing him MVP. The most frequently made argument in Nash's favor is that seven Suns are having career-highs in scoring, but this one is an obvious red herring. For starters, one of those seven is Nash himself. One of the others is Marion, barely squeaking past his previous career-high (21.7 to 21.2). And four of the other five players - Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, James Jones, and Boris Diaw - are getting so much more playing time than they every saw before that it would be shocking if they weren't averaging career bests. The seventh player, Eddie House, has legitimately boosted his scoring. We could attribute his improvement to Nash were it not for one problem: House is Nash's backup. The two are almost never on the court at the same time. Moreover, Nash is nowhere near the top of the leaderboard in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), my per-minute rating of a player's effectiveness. He ranks 14th, well behind the legitimate MVP candidates and Marion. Thus, while Nash has been great, and the Suns remarkable, the leap of faith required to anoint him the most valuable player in the entire league doesn't hold water. Eliminating the two point guards leaves us with James, Nowitzki, Bryant and Wade. On the court, the best player of the four was probably Bryant. In addition to his historic 81-point game, he's also the best defensive player of the four and single-handedly carried the Lakers to a playoff spot. Nevertheless, I can't place him higher than fourth on my ballot. One of the reasons L.A. was so talent-starved in the first place was because Bryant couldn't get along with Shaq, which kind of subtracts from the "most valuable" argument. Plus, I've yet to see a shred of evidence that any of his teammates can stand him. The next one to eliminate is Wade. Statistically, he's been just as good as Nowitzki and James. He ranks a close fourth in PER, and despite Shaq's presence, he had the greatest on-court off-court differential in the league (a whopping +15.5). On the other hand, Wade slumped a bit down the stretch, shot 13-of-76 from three-point range on the season, and one can't help but assign him at least a smidgen of the blame for Miami's slightly disappointing campaign. That leaves us with Dirk and Le-Bron. As you can see in the chart, they rank first and second in my PER rankings (taking it to another decimal, Le-Bron leads 28.18 to 28.16). Both also led teams that generally outperformed expectations. Dallas won 60 games despite several injuries and a lack of superstar talent beyond Nowitzki. The Cavs, meanwhile, could win their 50th game tonight despite missing Larry Hughes for half the season and getting horrendous seasons from several supporting players (Damon Jones in particular.) James has the edge in on-court offcourt differential, +13.0 to +7.7, but we would expect that. Nowitzki was backed up by the relatively competent Keith Van Horn, while James had lowlifes like Ira Newble and Luke Jackson replacing him, so the dropoff in Dallas was much less severe. How can I decide between these two, then? Well, if I can't differentiate on quality, I have to go with quantity. James played 42.5 minutes per game, compared to 38.1 for Nowitzki. During the course of the season, he played nearly eight full games more than Nowitzki, and there's value in that. Add in the fact that James came up the biggest down the stretch - right when Cavs fans were wondering if they would have another late-season collapse - and that he made several plays to win games in the final seconds, and you have a recipe for a Most Valuable Player. Let's hope the voters see it the same way. Last edited by harsh euro barge; 04-19-2006 at 02:06 PM.