[Lowe's 10 Things] On the "blah Mavs"
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Zach Lowe wrote about the Mavs in his latest article:
Jalen Brunson's newest trick: the Smitty fake spin!
That's a canny way to leverage the threat of Kristaps Porzingis's jumper; Brunson knows his defender will overreact to any fake there.
Brunson has again opened the season as the Mavs' second-best player. He's averaging 15 points on 50% shooting, and (again) finishing around the basket at a rate that should be impossible for a ground-bound fire hydrant.
The Mavs have blitzed opponents by eight points per 100 possessions with Brunson on the floor -- and lost non-Brunson minutes by (not a typo!) 17.4 points per 100 possessions. Dallas is somehow minus-91 in 192 minutes Luka Doncic has played without Brunson. The Mavs' lethargic first quarters got bad enough, Jason Kidd started Brunson twice last week.
Dallas is 7-4 despite ranking 22nd in offense and 19th in defense -- with an ugly minus-33 point differential. That is so weird, I'm almost impressed.
Maybe gutting out more early wins than they deserve portends something bigger when everything clicks. Doncic will snap into a livelier gear soon. Dallas is shooting tons of 3s. Kidd has dabbled in playing smaller -- with Porzingis as the only big, and Doncic sometimes the nominal "power forward" alongside three guards. That's promising.
Or maybe this is who the Mavs are: sludgy, praying for good Porzingis games, redirecting too much offense away from Doncic spread pick-and-rolls. (Maybe call two fewer pindowns per game for Tim Hardaway Jr. long 2s while Doncic pouts like a puffy statue at half-court? In fairness, Doncic's time of possession and pick-and-roll volume are up, per Second Spectrum. That said, I throw up a little in my mouth every time Porzingis wanders into a "post-up" at the elbow during what might otherwise be an effective Doncic-Dwight Powell pick-and-roll.)
With Jamal Murray and Kawhi Leonard hurt, the West is open. Doncic is that good. Ask the Clippers. But the Mavs aren't playing with force. They are last in shots at the rim, and the folks at Basketball-Reference say the Mavs' portion of attempts from the restricted area is the lowest ever in its database. Only 14% of Doncic's shots have come at the basket, by far the lowest mark of his career.
Powell doesn't do enough on either end. Dorian Finney-Smith is shooting 26% from deep, and is skittish working his pump-and-go game. Porzingis doesn't look ready to anchor a good defense as solo big man. Put it all together, and it's hard right now to see a Mavs team with enough two-way balance to win three playoff series. It's in there, somewhere, but not accessible today.
Everything will look better when Doncic finds his verve. He has a ton of pet moves too; this is an under-the-radar favorite:
Doncic should patent this U-turn, moonwalking 3. He keeps those semi-circles around his screener tight.
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