Quote:
Originally Posted by Melonhead
I said all year I thought the Mavs were a 7 seed. However, I thought it would be a comfortable 7 seed and not clawing to be in the race at all. I dont think the Mavs are overachieving but Vegas had the Mavs total at 39 wins before the season started. Vegas usually knows what theyre doing...
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I had the Mavs +/-3 .500, a 38 to 44 win team, and thought that they could realistically play for an 8th seed.
For most of the season they played toward the top or even slightly above that range. At that point, I'd have said that they were over-achieving. But even back in January, given Dirk's age, Zaza's overuse (and the lack of viable depth at the 5), and the ever-present concern about injury-prone players (Williams, Parsons) and players recovering from injury (Matthews, Parsons), it looked like they were ripe for a late-season fade. Which is exactly what has happened.
Mavs may be able to limp to the finish line with 38 wins, but I would not bet on them taking the final playoff spot. They were over-achieving early in the season, but they are playing down to form.
Mavericks have atrophied into a roster of grossly overpaid 2nd and 3rd-tier talent, anchored by a 37-year old player who can be productive (and a thing of beauty) in isolated games, but can no longer carry the team sucessfully, and shouldn't be asked to.
Carlisle did a great job back in 2011 of scheming with a team of veterans to defeat physically superior teams in an epic playoff run. Tip of the hat to him for that. He's playing micro-ball as a gimmick because the roster doesn't have enough talent to compete straight-up. (Talent + Gimmick = Warriors Championship. Gimmick Alone = 38 wins.) But as the Mavericks dissipate into the need for a full-on rebuild, there is legitimate question as to whether Carlisle is the right talent to develop young players. I'd say not. And a contract extension is more of an insurance policy than a commitment to him.
Cuban and Nelson have played the game of reload instead of rebuild, and in so doing have turned the last 4 years into a protracted Dirk Farewell Tour, as for the most part he has been the only thing worth watching. They have gambled and lost on free agent signings (Parsons: FAIL, Jordan: FAIL, Matthews: FAIL) and trades (Rondo:FAIL). Give them credit for trying, but at some point all those FAILS have to be acknowledged, and they have to take a new course. Cuban owns the team, so realistically that would mean Nelson's role needs to be diminished, or he needs to be let go.
I don't know if Cuban's basketball acumen is bigger than his business acumen, but I'm pretty sure that neither is bigger than his ego. He enjoys pretending to be one of the guys too much to step back and put in place more competent management. Mavericks will continue to devolve into a Rich Man's Toy a la Davis' Raiders, Jones' Cowboys, and Dolan's Knicks.
If you were too young to experience the Mavericks of the 90s, just pull out your paperbags and sit back. Gonna be a long decade. DéjÃ* vu all over again.