USS Clueless
For the last few days, quite frankly I haven't been paying close attention to the news reports from Iraq. Such reports as I did look at said about what I expected they would, and since I already knew their script ahead of time – it's all going to hell; it's all Bush's fault – there was no information to be gained. (As Wretchard pointed out, part of the script is that when things go badly for America then we are "hapless"; when things go well then we are "bullies".)
We won't be able to really learn what is happening there for quite a while, by watching long term trends. The press is doing its damndest to turn this into a rerun of the Tet Offensive, and as strange as it may seem, that's the biggest danger we now face.
Recently, Victor sent me the following email: Do you think it is possible that the US can lose the war that were are now engaged in, with the Islamic fanatics? If so, how?
Sure we can lose, and by far the most likely way for us to lose is for us to give up. In the last 30 years we are perceived to have done a lot of that, and our enemies have watched carefully. They know they have no hope of defeating us militarily but they don't think they have to.
The reason we were attacked in September of 2001 was because bin Laden believed we'd fold and surrender. He more or less expected America to respond the way the Spanish did after 3/11. Our enemies now understand that it won't be that easy, but they still hold out hope that eventually we'll lose our nerve.
There may come a time when we have to consider the possibility that the current strategy and campaign has to be significantly altered, but we are not close to that point yet. The recent uprising in Iraq is not an indication that we have failed.
We are often told we must study the lessons of history, and especially we are admonished by those opposing this war to study the lessons of Viet Nam. There are many aspects of that conflict which can teach us important lessons, and much about how it was fought and how it was managed politically to criticize. It is perhaps even arguable that we should not have fought there at all. But irrespective of any of those lessons, there is a very clear lesson to be learned from the Tet Offensive (which was only reinforced by the 1991 Gulf War): civilians can give away politically what soldiers have won on the battlefield.
The five fundamental elements of all war are objectives, strategy, tactics, logistics and morale, and it is possible to win on any of those levels. In this war, our enemies know they have no chance at all of defeating us strategically, tactically or logistically. All attempts to divert us from our objectives have failed. They perceive our greatest vulnerability to be morale, though not the morale of our troops.
They perceive our greatest vulnerability to be morale on the "home front". Even if they can't defeat us militarily, they can win if they convince us as a nation to surrender. If we come to believe we've been defeated, then we are defeated no matter how well or badly things are actually going.
That's how our enemies hope to win this war. But they can only gain such a victory if we citizens permit it. We are now and have always been their primary target. Each and every one of us is fighting this war inside their skulls, and that is where we have the greatest risk of losing.