Quote:
Originally Posted by kingmalaki
Why does Magic have a low PER? He retired when he was 32, basically in his prime. I can't agree that PER should be a big factor when the #2 dude is LeBron, the #4 dude is David Robinson and Magic, who is in the GOAT convo, is #13. The same goes for win shares, where Stockton is #5 on the list. How reliable is a metric where Stockton is #5 and Reggie Miller is #11 (both guys played well past their prime), yet Hakeem is #15, Magic is #19 and Bird is #21?
My argument is consistent. The rankings of those lists don't make any sense when you use them to start comparing players. How else can you explain dudes ranked higher who obviously weren't better players, and weren't putting up better numbers? This is all in response to who has better numbers, Malone or Dirk. No one in league history had better numbers than Wilt. He isn't #1 on the list for PER (#5, behind David Robinson) or win shares (#2, and ironically Karl Malone is #3).
The win shares per 48 list is garbage as well, as far as saying who outperformed who. David Robinson is #2, ahead of Wilt (#3) who did actually play 48 mpg in a season. CP3 is #5, ahead of Magic (#8). Manu is #11, ahead of West, Stockton, Shaq, Oscar Robertson (the other stat machine besides Wilt) and Bird. I don't see how you can rely on a list with results like that.
Last example which really highlights why I don't rely on PER. Dirk's high PER is 28.1, from 05/06. This is from the season where he dropped 27, 9, 3 on 48%, 41% and 91%. Larry Bird has never had a PER that high (high of 27.8, and he only broke 27 once). His PER was never that high even though he compiled these stats in his MVP winning seasons:
83/84 - 24, 10, 7, 49%, 25%, 89% (24.2 PER)
84/85 - 29, 11, 7, 52%, 43%, 89% (26.5 PER)
85/86 - 26, 10, 7, 50%, 42%, 90% (25.6 PER)
Would you really argue that Dirk put up better numbers in 05/06 than Bird put up in either of those seasons, because his PER is higher?
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Lets pick the median years, so 85-86.
Bird's raw numbers vs. Dirk's raw numbers, you've stated. But lets look deeper.
1. Dirk had a 59% TS% vs. Bird's 58%. Thus, Dirk was the more efficient scorer. This plays a role in the higher PER. Larry's FG% & 3PT% were slightly higher, BUT, Dirk shot more threes, and he went to the line more (where he shot a higher FT%). That's why he has the higher TS%.
2. Both players had the exact same TRB% (14.2) Raw numbers show Bird as averaging 1 more RPG...BUT that doesn't take pace and rebounding opportunities into account.
3. While Bird had more assists, he also turned it over much more. Dirk had a minute TOV% of 7.9%. Bird's was 12.7%.
4. Dirk had the greater impact on offense. Dirk's ORtg was 123 vs. Bird's 117.
Thus, while the raw numbers show Bird as shooting better, Dirk was actually more efficient. While the raw numbers show Bird as the better rebounder, they were in fact, dead even. While the raw numbers show Bird as having a greater offensive impact, in fact, Dirk did.
That's why Dirk had a higher PER, and that's why you can't look solely at Raw numbers. I'd also wager Dirk had a substantially higher +/-.