Thread: Top 25 Greatest Players Ever
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Old 06-25-2011, 08:22 AM   #94
Thespiralgoeson
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Originally Posted by kingmalaki View Post
Why does Magic have a low PER? He retired when he was 32, basically in his prime. I can't agree that PER should be a big factor when the #2 dude is LeBron, the #4 dude is David Robinson and Magic, who is in the GOAT convo, is #13. The same goes for win shares, where Stockton is #5 on the list. How reliable is a metric where Stockton is #5 and Reggie Miller is #11 (both guys played well past their prime), yet Hakeem is #15, Magic is #19 and Bird is #21?

My argument is consistent. The rankings of those lists don't make any sense when you use them to start comparing players. How else can you explain dudes ranked higher who obviously weren't better players, and weren't putting up better numbers? This is all in response to who has better numbers, Malone or Dirk. No one in league history had better numbers than Wilt. He isn't #1 on the list for PER (#5, behind David Robinson) or win shares (#2, and ironically Karl Malone is #3).

The win shares per 48 list is garbage as well, as far as saying who outperformed who. David Robinson is #2, ahead of Wilt (#3) who did actually play 48 mpg in a season. CP3 is #5, ahead of Magic (#8). Manu is #11, ahead of West, Stockton, Shaq, Oscar Robertson (the other stat machine besides Wilt) and Bird. I don't see how you can rely on a list with results like that.

Last example which really highlights why I don't rely on PER. Dirk's high PER is 28.1, from 05/06. This is from the season where he dropped 27, 9, 3 on 48%, 41% and 91%. Larry Bird has never had a PER that high (high of 27.8, and he only broke 27 once). His PER was never that high even though he compiled these stats in his MVP winning seasons:

83/84 - 24, 10, 7, 49%, 25%, 89% (24.2 PER)
84/85 - 29, 11, 7, 52%, 43%, 89% (26.5 PER)
85/86 - 26, 10, 7, 50%, 42%, 90% (25.6 PER)

Would you really argue that Dirk put up better numbers in 05/06 than Bird put up in either of those seasons, because his PER is higher?
Stats like PER and win shares are sorta like QB Rating in football. They're not everything by any means but they're certainly not nothing either. Efficiency is really an entirely different statistical category on its own. Personally, I view both stats essentially as a player's bball IQ rating; who takes the smartest shots, makes fewer mistakes etc... It doesn't necessarily measure a player's overall worth, but it IMO what it does measure how much a player contributes to the game within his own specialized role; how much the player immediately impacts the game. It's why you sometimes see bench players with higher PER's than his team's franchise player. Doesn't make him a better player necessarily, just a smarter one maybe.
Last edited by Thespiralgoeson; 06-25-2011 at 08:34 AM.
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