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EXCLUSIVE: Jason Kidd Guides Us Through Mavs' Barea-vs.-Beaubois Plus/Minus Debate


“For myself, I don’t get too wrapped up in (advanced stats) because a lot of them still put a lot of weight on scoring,’’ Mavs leader Jason Kidd tells DallasBasketball.com. “And me, I put more weight on winning.’’

But for the purpose of this project (here's Part 1 of this attempt to put into application the Plus/Minus numbers that favor rookie Roddy Beaubois over J.J. Barea) I view Kidd as an ideal partner in basketball science. Nobody knows the position better than he does. Nobody knows the relative skills of Roddy and JJB better than he does. And in my 16 years of dealing with Kidd, he’s never been much of a b.s.’er with me. …

“I think,’’ says Kidd when I introduce him to the subject, “what we’re going to find is that eventually, the coaches … are going to have a decision to make.’’

With that, into the laboratory we march, Jason Kidd and yours truly. …

First a quick rounding-off of the raw data and the raw observations, based on a pretty accepted advanced stat, Plus/Minus. (For all the specifics, see Part 1.) Barea has been ahead of the rookie Beaubois as a finisher of record, even as Roddy has moved into the starting lineup. In a Sunday win at Detroit, Pistons guard Will Bynum scored 27 points – eight of those when Roddy was on the floor, the other 19 when JJB was on the floor. The next night, in the OT win at Milwaukee, it happened again; the stellar youngster Brandon Jennings was clear more effective when JJB was on the floor than when he was opposed by Beaubois.

Little wonder that Jennings’ review of Beaubois’ work sounded like this:

“I think he is the future for that team.’’

Going into Wednesday’s San Antonio game, the Mavs as a team were a +72, while JJB was a -27.

Mr. Kidd?

“The first thing you have to consider is what a guy’s role is when he comes on the floor, who he is playing with, and who he is playing against,’’ Kidd says. “In J.J.’s case, a lot of times we’ve got him leading the second group. And overall, our second group, our bench, is and will be pretty good.’’

OK, but what about the fact that Barea has also been a part of the 3-PG Attack that puts him on the floor with Dallas’ best players? And what about the fact that when he is in that role, he shouldn’t be at all overextended, meaning, he doesn’t have to be the No. 1 scorer, he doesn’t have to be the No. 1 ballhandler?

“True,’’ Kidd says. “What I would say to that is to remember what J.J. did here last year in the same role. In that three (point-guard-type) lineup, it’s his versatility that really helps it work. Because he can be the scorer and he can be the ballhandler and he can be the guy who breaks down a defense. He’s done all that.’’

Let’s move to Roddy Beaubois. Just as Kidd has mentored JJB (Barea grew up idolizing the future Hall-of-Famer), Kidd’s been a big brother to Roddy. What does he see in Beaubois?

“Well, about the (Plus/Minus) numbers,’’ Kidd says, “that’s where the unfairness comes in. If Roddy starts and he gets to play with Dirk, he’s probably going to start pretty well, you know?’’

Nevertheless, Kidd isn’t arguing that the numbers are fibbing here. Yes, it’s a small sample size and yes, JJB has a track record and yes, there are going to be bumps in the rookie road that Roddy cannot simply sprint around or jump over (I think). But Kidd certainly understands if the Mavs audience is pleased to be seeing Beaubois’ minutes catching up with JJB’s minutes – and it seems he kind of feels the same way.

“We need them both, of course, especially with our injuries and especially because both of them are developing the ability to do so many things,’’ Kidd says. “But this Roddy. … he’s a talent. A real talent. The coaches are going to have decisions to make. I know (the coaches) are aware of the Plus/Minus deal and all the other (advanced stats). But mostly, it’s about Roddy’s talent. The only thing that limits him is his lack of experience …

“And,’’ my co-scientist Jason Kidd concludes, “it’s probably smart to go ahead and get him some of that experience.’’

http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=2256