Predictions can be easy sometimes. The Yankees will win the pennant. Shaq will take Miami to the next level. The Spurs will win the West. How many prognosticators picked the Pistons at the start of last year? And how many of those experts picked Detroit to make a repeat appearance in the NBA finals?
I'm as big a culprit as any. In my first column this year I picked Detroit and San Antonio to face off in this year's final. Sometimes when you're unsure you stick with conventional wisdom. But it's January, and while I think the Pistons will eventually start playing better, there is a team in the West that bears watching as we head into the second half.
The Dallas Mavericks.
We all know the Mavs history. They're a rotisserie team, one with too many gunners and not enough defenders. They lost their starting point guard in the offseason and replaced his salary slot with a 29-year old center who has a questionable work ethic. But so far things haven't been as bad as many had expected. They have a future star in rookie point guard Devin Harris, and while Erick Dampier hasn't put up the numbers he did last season, he has provided the physical presence Dallas has lacked during the Nowitzki/Nelson Era.
Going into Tuesday night's shootout with the Wizards, Dallas was allowing 96.4 points per game, down from the 100.8 per contest last season. Defenders are getting out on the shooters -- last year the Mavs ranked 25th in opponents 3-point percentage, this year they're first in defending the 3. Nowitzki, in addition to being unguardable, has matured as a player and as a leader in the absence of Steve Nash and he has gotten major contributions from long time running mate Michael Finley and the vastly underrated Josh Howard. They still have their issues: turnovers, especially when you have a natural two (Jason Terry) and a rookie running the offense, and injuries -- to Finley, Howard and Marquis Daniels -- which have prevented the Mavs from developing cohesiveness. But they have overcome these deficiencies by playing smart, solid basketball throughout the first half of the season.
Will this translate into playoff success? Hard to say. San Antonio must be considered the favorite, but beyond the Spurs everyone else in the West has holes. Seattle and Phoenix, two teams capable of scoring with the Mavericks, have cooled off as of late. Sacramento, despite the addition of Cuttino Mobley, has been inconsistent and Minnesota and L.A. look nothing like the two teams that met in last year's Western Finals. So the window, albeit a small one, is there for the Mavericks.
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