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Who's in and out of NBA draft

Chad Ford
NBA Insider

This is the time of year when college players begin to declare their intentions for the NBA draft. For the most part, information received this time of year is fairly unreliable. Last year at this time, both Chris Paul and Marvin Williams were saying they wanted to return to school. We all know how that went.

Still, in the past few days a few prominent prospects have talked about their NBA futures. Click here for a full list of who's in and who's out of the NBA draft.

Out Of The Draft?

Tyler Hansbrough, F, UNC -- Hansbrough issued a joint statement with coach Roy Williams on Wednesday saying he's returning for his sophomore season at North Carolina.

"I never really considered leaving for the NBA after this season," Hansbrough said in the statement. "However, coach Williams still provided me information he learned from his contacts in the league and after listening to that information I still think it is best for me to come back and be with my teammates again and hopefully have another fantastic season. The NBA is definitely a goal of mine down the line but right now I am enjoying college a great deal and feel I can improve in every phase of my game. I enjoy school, my teammates and being part of the Carolina basketball program."

Hansbrough was projected by NBA scouts as a late lottery to mid-first-round pick and is currently ranked No. 16 on our draft big board. He was the best freshman basketball player in the country and scouts loved the tenaciousness with which he played the game.

Can he improve his stock by staying in school?

It's questionable. If Hansbrough were a few inches taller or more athletic, he'd be a top-five pick in the draft based on his production this year. Unless Williams has a stretching machine at UNC or develops a way to improve Hansbrough's athleticism, the two NBA scouts I spoke with on Wednesday predicted that his stock probably won't rise much higher than where it is right now.

Joakim Noah, F/C, Florida: Noah has consistently told people that he plans to return for a junior season at Florida. But given the recent rise in his draft stock, are those plans still realistic? Noah was quoted by the Palm Beach Press on Wednesday as saying that the NBA was "boring" and a "joke almost" and that he was loving college life. Will he keep that position if Florida wins a title? Noah doesn't need the money the way many college athletes do.

While it's very clear that Noah would benefit from another year in school (he needs to add muscle and keep refining his offensive skills) it's hard to imagine that Noah's draft stock ever will be much higher. He's already ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the draft on our big board and, with a few more great games, he has a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. If history is a guide, Noah will reverse course and enter the draft. It's pretty rare for top-five picks to pass up on the opportunity. Noah could be the exception.

Jermareo Davidson, F, Alabama: Davidson released a statement on Tuesday announcing that he would return to school for his senior season. Davidson had a great season at Alabama but is making an excellent decision to return to the Crimson Tide for his senior season. While scouts were impressed with his increased production at both ends of the floor, he still projected as a second-round prospect in the draft. Another year to build strength and skills could propel him into the first round.

In The Draft?

Guillermo Diaz, G, Miami: Diaz announced Wednesday that he would declare for the draft and hire agent Jason Levien to represent him. That ends any speculation about his returning for his senior season in Miami. I'm not sure this is a great move. Diaz's numbers are down across the board this season, and he's done little to convince scouts that he has the skills to be a point guard in the pros. While scouts love his athleticism and motor, he's projected by most scouts to be a bubble first-rounder. Still, a small handful of scouts (including scouts from the hometown Heat) are higher on Diaz and have him ranked solidly in the mid-to-late first round. They believe once Diaz gets into workouts, his athleticism will wow them into taking him in the first round. Seems like he'd be better off testing the waters, but maybe he knows something we don't.

Curtis Stinson, G, Iowa State: Stinson has had a great junior year and is already 23 years old. It's time to test the waters. Stinson says that he has not hired an agent, thus preserving his collegiate eligibility. That's a good thing, as scouts see him as a bubble first-rounder at this point. Teams believe that he projects as a big, scoring point guard in the pros. They love his athleticism, strength and ability to get to the basket … but his outside jumper is still a big question mark. If he could return to school and fix his jumper, it might be wise to stay. Look for teams to give him serious consideration for the late first round.

Richard Roby, G, Colorado: Roby announced he's declaring for the draft but hasn't hired an agent yet. It's probably a wise move. While scouts love Roby's shooting stroke in theory, his shooting percentage actually went down this year. A late-season swoon didn't help things. Every scout Insider talked to feels that he needs at least one more year at Colorado. Now that he's decided to come out, he'll need great workouts and perhaps strong play at the Orlando predraft camp to convince scouts that his combination of shooting and athleticism is enough to make him a first-round pick.
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Chat with Chad Ford


Welcome to The Show! On Thursday, ESPN NBA Insider Chad Ford will drop by to take your questions on the season.

Ford writes daily NBA Insider columns for ESPN Insider. He also is a frequent contributor to ESPN.com and ESPN the Magazine, and makes appearances on ESPN Radio and ESPNEWS.

Send in your questions to Chad Ford now, then join him right here in The Show on Thursday at noon ET!

Ford Archive: Chats | Columns

SportsNation Chad Ford: Hey everyone, thanks for coming to the chat today. We'll spend the first 15-20 minutes talking about the league and then turn to the draft.

Steve Dallas, TX: With Amare likely out for the season, is there any way that the Suns make a run in the playoffs?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Sure. Losing Amare hurts, but the Suns were performing just fine without him. I think San Antonio and Dallas are better. But it's likely that they'll meet in the second round. I think the Suns will still be in the Western Conference finals. Not sure they'll go past there, but that's quite an accomplishment considering their most dominant player was out all year.

Steve (Andover, MA: Even if Shaq isn't healthy do you think Wade can carry the Heat to the finals with solid play from the supporting cast?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Wade is the key to this year's team, not Shaq. Still ... I'm not sure the Heat could get past Detroit in a 7 game series with a healthy Shaq. Without him? Forget about it.

Farina (Henrietta): Are the Nets a championship contender come playoff time??

SportsNation Chad Ford: I think they're a sleeper. Kidd, Jefferson and Carter have been great and Nenad Krstic has really developed into a good player. Their bench is a little thin ... but so is Detroit's. The way they've been playing lately, I think they pose a bigger challenge to the Pistons than the Heat.

Rob (Los Angeles, CA): KG says he doesn't want a trade and the owner says he won't trade him. Should we believe them, or are they just trying to say the right things in public?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I'm sure KG would love a trade. He's just the type of guy who doesn't want to demand one in public. The problem is that the Wolves have zero motivation to trade him. You can't get anything close to equal value in return and the team just added a number of long term contracts to the roster mid-season. Now, even if they traded Garnett, they still would have little flexibility to rebuild. The Wolves have done as bad of a job as any team in the league the last five six years trying to build a team.

Ryan (Southborough MA): Where do you see the Celtics in 2 years?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I like all of their young talent. But at some point they're going to have to figure out how to consistently win basketball games. That may just come with time. The team is very young. But will it come in time to take advantage of Paul Pierce in his prime? I'm a little pessimistic. Celtics might make the playoffs next year. But I think they're several years away from being a championship contender. By the time they get there, will Pierce still be dominant?

Rob (San Jose, CA): The Golden State Warriors have tremendous young talent, and after another disappointing year, what do you think is preventing them from reaching their potential and the playoffs?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Chemistry and coaching. Too many personal agendas on that team and they don't have a coach strong enough to control folks like Baron Davis. Either Chris Mullin has to find a veteran coach who will command respect or he's going to have to dump Baron. My guess is that the coach goes first.

Andre (DC): Chad is it conceivable at all that the Knicks will be just as bad next season as they were this season?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Yes. You could hope that young guys like Channing Frye, Eddy Curry and Nate Robinson get better ... but I'm not sure Larry Brown would play them consistently if they did. As for this ridiculous idea floating around that the Knicks are going to get Kevin Garnett this summer ... c'mon. I think Kevin McHale is one of the worst GMs ever ... but he's not that dumb. Is he? To me, the Bulls are the only team out there with the right combination of young players and cap space to make an attractive offer for Garnett.

Matt (Toronto ON): I have been watching the draft boards carefully all season. I personally do not agree with peoples' 'stock' jumping and falling so drastically due to one tournament performance. Granted, it's the biggest stage in basketball, but how do you explain it?

SportsNation Chad Ford: It is silly Matt. Here's why it happens. While scouts see players all year, GMs and NBA coaches don't. They ususually start paying serious attention this time of year and a great performance by a guy leaves a lasting impression on the guys with the decision making power. Two, these players are young so what they do at the end of the season usually has a bit more relevance than what they were doing at the beginning. They are supposed to progress. The other reason it happens is that teams want to see how a player performs with intense competition and pressure. The tournament games are the closest simulation to NBA games because everyone on the floor steps it up a notch. With all of that said, I think too much stock is being placed on the performance of players in the tournament. I think it should be a factor, but not THE factor. But, I've got to report what I hear and history says that the tournament bumps a guy's stock like nothing else.

Matt (Orlando): How good can Joakim Noah be in the NBA? He's a beast on the floor, motor always running. The only problem I can forsee is his size. He could easily add another 20 to 30 lbs on his frame. Will he be a top 5 pick this season?

SportsNation Chad Ford: He'd be a likely top 5 pick if he declares. Scouts love the motor and size. Obviously strength is a major issue. He's going to have to be a four in the pros. He's skilled, but I'm not sure he's that skilled to make the transition right away. He'd be better off staying at Florida another year from a development standpoint, but it's tough to turn down a Top 5 selection in the draft. My guess is that at the end of the day, Noah declares.

Jonathan (Brooklyn, NY): Chad, Hansbrough said he's coming back to Chapel Hill. Was this a good move by him? What does he need to work on from an NBA standpoint and why is he listed below Josh McRoberts, whom he clearly outplayed and outperformed all year? Thanks.

SportsNation Chad Ford: I'm not sure that Tyler Hansbrough's stock will ever be higher, so I'm not sure he made the right call. The only reason he's not ranked higher is because he's a little undersized to play the four in the pros and he's not a great athlete. I don't think he'll be able to fix either of those issues with another year at UNC. I respect his decision. He loves playing college basketball and doesn't want to be stuck on the end of a bench next season in the NBA. But I wonder if he can really improve his draft stock. In fact, given how great the draft class of 2007 could be, he may slip a little bit.

Jamar: (Atlanta): With what we saw last night in the McDonald's all-america game, and guys like Noah, Rush, and Hansbrough returning next season, Does the 2007 draft shape up to be the best draft class in the last 20 years?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I don't think it's a lock that Joakim Noah and Brandon Rush are returning next year, but your point is right. The 2007 class looks great. There are five to seven high school players who would've been first round picks this year. With a year of college under their belt ... that number could swell to 10.

Rian (NYC): If the NBA hadn't banned high school players from entering the draft, which players from last nights McDonald's All-American game (besides Greg Oden) would have been potential first round picks?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Greg Oden would've been the consensus No. 1 pick. Kevin Durant and Brandon Wright would've been locks for the lottery. Spencer Hawes also might have been a late lottery pick. Scouts also like Thaddeus Young and Javaris Crittenton as potential first rounders.

Chauncey (Orlando): How far can Tyrus Thomas climb up NBA draft boards and how far can JJ Redick and Adam Morrison fall.

SportsNation Chad Ford: One or two more big games from Thomas in the tournament and he could be the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. As it stands, a handful of teams already would take him No. 1. I don't think Morrison will fall too far. He's probably a top 5 pick, though physicals and workouts could hurt his stock a little. I don't think Redick will slip past Utah ...

Charles (San Jose): Chad, what's the word on Arizona's Marcus Williams?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I don't think he'll declare. But he'll be a very hot prospect in the 2007 draft.

Steve (Los Angeles): Does Orlando draft Brandon Roy, or do they search for a veteran at the 2?

SportsNation Chad Ford: They're going young and I think Roy's a great fit for them at the two. He's unselfish, plays great defense, can play point which would allow Jameer Nelson to concentrate a little more on scoring and he's ready to contribute right now in the NBA. If Orlando can land Roy and combine him with Nelson, Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic, they may have the best young core in the league.

SportsNation Chad Ford: ... and don't forget that they'll have a ton of free agent money in 2007. Don't be surprised if they use it to make a run at Rashard Lewis ... the guy would be a very nice piece for that team and he's still young enough to live through the rebuilding.

Baltimore: What's your take on Randy Foye? Which team would be the best fit? Why?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Almost all of the scouts I've talked to have him in their top 10. He's undersized, but he does everything so well they don't think it will be a major issue. I think a team like Atlanta, Toronto, Minnesota or Boston would be a good fit.

Dave, Boston: CRAIG SMITH--I understand that scouts perceive him as a 'tweener but I can't believe that he gets so little recognition. I know Barkley comparisons are always unfair, but don't scouts see a little Barkley in him? Do you think he will even get drafted?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Every undersized four in the draft tries the old "I'm Charles Barkley" thing. So far their 0-for-113 on making that stick. I don't think Smith is the guy who breaks the mold. He's a potential second rounder, but my guess is that he's undrafted.

P (NYC): What would you give to see the Hawks take another swingman? Wouldn't it be funny if they took Rudy Gay to go with Williams, Childress, Johnson, and Josh Smith?

SportsNation Chad Ford: Given who their GM is ... I'm expecting them to take Rudy Gay with their pick.

Rick Oakland CA: Chad, you've been hired by the Bulls as a draft consultant. Which of the available big men works best with Chandler? Are Thomas and Noah too much like Tyson? What do you do with the Bulls own choice? Bill John Paxson.

SportsNation Chad Ford: Noah is too much like Chandler. He's more skilled, but neither is going to back guys down in the post. Thomas would be OK. Aldridge is the most skilled of the group, but he too isn't strong enough to get real physical in the post. If I was forced to choose, I'd probably go with Aldridge just because I think he's the best offensive player of the bunch, but none are perfect fits. The Bulls would be better off with a guy like Brandon Roy and then use Ben Gordon as trade bait to get the four they're looking for.

Knox (Tucson): Given that Portland would take Morrison if available, do you think that Darius Miles would be dealt in the off season? Thanks

SportsNation Chad Ford: My guess is that Miles is gone this summer ... even if they don't land Morrison.

Jon (Malvern): Do you think this year's weaker draft class will tempt a lot of underclassmen to declare early?

SportsNation Chad Ford: That's what all of the agents that are trying to lure them out of college are telling them. Unfortunately, not every underclassmen who declares can go in the first round. This is a pretty strong senior class which will limit the number of slots. A few kids are going to gamble and get burned.

Scott (San Diego): Chad - What is your take on Brandon Heath for San Diego State? Should he come back to school and what can he work on during his senior season?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I like him. He has good size for the position, but I don't think he's a first rounder this year. He needs to return to school. Same goes for Marcus Slaughter.

Dan (Bmore): What is going on with the mock lottery where you have Mcroberts ahead of Sheldon Williams in ever scenario?

SportsNation Chad Ford: I know college fans hate this, but it's upside. Williams is a great college player, but he projects as a role player in the pros by most scouts. His rebounding and shotblocking may get him taken in the late lottery, but no one expects him to be a star. McRoberts didn't do much this season, but his combo of size, skills and athleticism have scouts drooling. It seems like the world is upside down to many college fans ... but that's the NBA. They are looking for tools more than performance this high in the draft.

Ron Lebo (Middlebury, VT): Whats your take on Andrea Bargnani? Is he the next Dirk or another Detroit-Darko?

SportsNation Chad Ford: It's unfair to compare Euros to Dirk ... but EVERY scout I talk to, both international and American, keeps saying that he's the closest guy to Dirk that they've seen coming out of Europe. I've seen him play in person and on tape maybe 10 times. He's pretty good and he's putting up very good numbers in the second best league in the world. If there had been no Darko/Skita backlash, he probably goes No. 1 -- who doesn't want the next Dirk? That leads me to the second interesting point? Given how well Nenad Krstic, Boris Diaw, Tony Parker etc. have played this year combined with the recent strong play of Darko ... is there still a backlash?

Sonny W. (South Bend): Rudy Gay is the most overrated player EVER! Tell me what he has accomplished? Please? He vanishes in nearly every game. BUST is written all over him.

SportsNation Chad Ford: That's a little strong Sonny. He's got all the tools to be a great NBA player. Does he have the heart? The drive? The ability to create his own shot? He's probably a Top 10 pick this year based on potential ... but I sure would love to see him stay in school another year and prove to us that he's got the drive to be a great basketball player in him. I've only seen flashes. That's not enough these days for how high he's projected.

Vernon ( OKC): Hey Chad, if Marcus Williams comes out from UCONN the the NBA where do you see him going?

SportsNation Chad Ford: He's probably the top point guard taken ... just ahead of Rajon Rondo. I'm not sure Deron Williams was any better than this kid and look how high Williams went. My guess is that he goes somewhere between 10 and 18 if he declares.

SportsNation Chad Ford: Got to run everyone. Great chat today. Well do it again next week.