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That's why I don't think the "scantily-clad woman getting raped" metaphor that Jthig mentioned above necessarily equates to a situation where a woman happened to hit a man... Rape is a completely predatory act, but when one person hits another person, it triggers a primal defense mechanism. So saying: "women who dress provocatively had it coming" isn't exactly the same thing as saying "if you hit somebody, you might get hit back."
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I completely agree that a woman attacking a man changes the conversation on domestic violence, to a certain extent. But there's two things I wont to point out, and you touched on one of them yourself:
1. Smith didn't say "don't attack first". He said don't provoke. And that's just way too generic a statement. That can be interpreted so many ways that's it's pointless and insulting to even say.
2. As you pointed out, we have to put some context around these situations. If a woman that is outsized by that much slaps a man, it's tantamount to spitting on him, or pushing him. Or maybe yelling at him. Sure, technically it's assault, but he's not in danger. He doesn't feel threatened. He got pissed. That's all. It'd be no different than if my 13 year old daughter slapped me and I punched her lights out. If I did that, would we be talking about provocation?
There's nothing she could have done to justifiably provoke what happened. Which is why I think the rape scenario fits as a comparison. You say hitting someone produces a primal response. And seeing a scantily clad woman in a compromised state doesn't in some people? And there's nothing predatory about what Rice did, when he followed up the punch by dragging her by her hair? Plenty of people claim situational causes with rape, that they didn't plan for it to happen. They claim to have been seduced and/or teased and then asked to stop. They got caught up in the moment. And people absolutely try to explain it away by focusing on the victim. Same thing is happening here.