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Extra rest doesn't make NBA playoff teams rusty
May 4, 2006

The Mavericks, naturally, are getting antsy. They're the only team to have swept away its first round opponent, disposing of the Grizzlies with a 26-point win Monday. With Sacramento putting up a devil of a fight against the Spurs in the West's 1 vs. 8 matchup, there remains the possibility that the Mavs won't play until next week -- possibly Tuesday.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki -- who was brilliant in the Memphis series, averaging 31.3 points on 50.6 percent shooting, with 3 assists per game -- told reporters he'd like to keep the momentum going. "It's a long time to sit around and kind of get ready," he said. "I'd like to move a little quicker than that."

Which brings us to a discussion that arises annually in playoff time. Inevitably, during the postseason, a team will win its series in four or five games, while the next round's opponent will find itself in a seven-game dogfight. The question arises: Does sitting around make a team well-rested, or just plain rusty?

The Mavericks, of all teams, should know the answer. Last year they were taken to the seven-game limit by Houston in the first round of the playoffs, while the Suns swept Memphis. Dallas came out in Game 1 of the second round and looked lethargic -- like a team that had just gotten out of a seven-game cement mixer. Phoenix won by 25, and the Mavs never really recovered, losing the series in six games.

In fact, take a look at the numbers, and it's obvious that teams don't really get rusty just because they have to wait to start their next series. In the last 15 postseasons, 28 teams have had significant waits between rounds -- significant wait meaning a two-game difference between length of series. So, a team that wins in five and waits for an opponent that wins in seven would be a significant wait. A team that sweeps and waits for an opponent that wins in six counts, too.

In those 28 instances, the team with the rest went 23-5 in Game 1.

That's good news for the Mavericks. If they play the Kings, who are now down, 3-2, they will have a team that pulled off the near-impossible -- a No. 8 seed beating a No. 1 seed. Hard to imagine the Kings having enough emotional fortitude to survive a series against both San Antonio and Dallas.

More likely, the Mavericks will play the Spurs. This is where there may be a bit of a glitch in the statistical advantage Dallas seems to hold. Rested teams dominate non-rested teams, but that is generally because the rested team is just so much better than the non-rested team. That's not the case with Dallas and San Antonio -- there are two evenly matched teams.

Typically, the rested team is one like the Pistons, who beat the Bucks in five games, and could face a second-round opponent -- Washington or Cleveland -- that needed seven games to emerge from its opening series. The Pistons are the No. 1 seed, the Wizards and Cavs are Nos. 5 and 4. Safe to say the Pistons would win a series against either of those opponents.

Still, the evidence shows that the Mavericks' time off gives them a clear advantage heading into the second round -- in a series that should be so closely matched, that even slight advantages should be significant.

As Mavs guard Jason Terry told reporters, "We can kind of watch what happens in those other series and prepare." That is a real bonus.