[MFFL]

Tier 3 for the Unicorn - at a C

Klay Thompson and Kristaps Porzingis were challenges to place for similar reasons, largely not knowing what to expect from them physically, with both coming off of knee surgeries. They diverge sharply in terms of how top-line metrics view them: Porzingis rating highly across the board while Thompson’s impact stats are more muted.

Meanwhile, Porzingis has been very effective virtually whenever he has been on the court. There were some growing pains adjusting to a more secondary offensive role alongside Luka Doncic as well as completing his recovery from his own ACL injury suffered in early 2018. But that was a minor blip, as he finished 18th in RAPM for the 2019-20 season. His impact was felt on both ends of the floor as well, with both RAPM and PIPM suggesting he has helped his teams defensively almost as much as at the other end. I’m not sure I buy that totally, but it is a strong indicator that he does have a defensive presence.

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Tier 3 consists of players who perform at a level worthy of getting “in the conversation” for an All-Star slot, but are probably just short of being All-NBA Third Team level contributors. From a statistical standpoint, this is the group that starts to produce at a level deserving of the 25 percent “rookie max” available to players coming off of their initial NBA deals, and should be worth somewhere in the region of seven to nine wins per season, assuming health and normal starter minutes.

This tier is subdivided into three tranches, A, B and C, with eight, six and seven players, respectively. Each step up from C to B and then from B to A represents a small but distinct upgrade in ability. As discussed in the intro to this series, as we get higher up the value scale across the league, small differences start to have a big impact in terms of value toward winning a championship. Thus, the desire is to make as fine-grained distinctions as possible. Some of the contrasts and comparisons drawn might seem like nitpicking. But this group reaches into the top 20 players in the league, making a hard-eyed look all the more important because those small deficiencies on one hand or unheralded attributes on the other can often make the difference between advancing in the postseason or not.


The questions for Porzingis are not really of ability but more about availability. He has had a habit of picking up injuries here and there, and even if these nicks and scrapes don’t chip away at some of the mobility that makes him such a unique player at his size, they do tend to keep him off the court. Safe to say Dallas could have used him in its attempt to upset the Clippers in the first round this year. But if he can stay on the floor, Porzingis has demonstrated the ability to be an All-NBA level talent worthy of a higher tier than his current location.