[spreedom]

Some fun tidbits from Zach Lowe's last article before free agency starts:

Take Marvin Williams: He's 30, coming off a career year, and he brings a positional versatility that could help any team. It would not be preposterous for someone to offer him a two-year, $38 million deal. (Seriously, get ready, everyone.) But if Williams hungers for more guaranteed cash, which team will bend and offer something like (gulp) three years and $50 million?

I've heard another idea from the great Dunc'd On podcast that a team could offer Williams 2yrs/$50M, with the first year fully guaranteed and the 2nd only $5M guaranteed. I think contracts like that are neat and I hope we get a ton of them in the next week.

Dwight Howard might be the thorniest test of willpower. Teams are turning up their noses at even a two-year guaranteed deal for Howard anywhere near his max. But progress, real and imagined, can make teams do funny things. The Blazers have a gazillion in cap room, and they want to hold the line in a Western Conference that will be better almost across the board. They could use a defensive anchor at center, and they will absolutely look at Howard, per several league sources.

The Hawks are reluctant to offer Horford the fifth year only they can dangle, and if they hold firm, they are at grave risk of losing him for nothing, per league sources. (Watch out for the Pistons on Horford; with Wednesday's trade of Meeks, they are one tiny move away from being able to fit his max. They are working to schedule a meeting with Horford over the first 48 hours of free agency, sources say. Horford's fit alongside Andre Drummond is another question entirely.)

Philadelphia and Brooklyn will be bad, but early indications are that both will go hard after young-ish free agents with untapped upside. They have enough cap space to make it rain with offer sheets, and at worst, they will drive up both prices and the pace of business in restricted free agency -- bad news for a team like the Warriors, who might need to wait out Durant before making a choice on Harrison Barnes.

5. Will we see more creative contract extensions?

Yes! Here's the deal: If teams have cap room, they can use it on raises for guys who signed their current contracts at least three years ago -- and tack more years onto the end of those deals. Denver did this last season with Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, and both the Jazz and Pacers seem like good candidates to try with George Hill and Teague -- provided they have the requisite space leftover.

If they play their cards right, the Pacers and Kings could start this process with Paul George and Cousins, respectively, in September. Derrick Favors becomes eligible a month later. The Wizards could engage with John Wall on the last day of July -- the third anniversary of the day he signed his extension.

And last but not least, his entire section on the Mavs' free agency strategy and outlook:

Dallas dreams of luring both Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside on max deals, per ESPN BlackBerry maven Marc Stein, but absent a series of salary-sloughing trades, the Mavericks can't open up the requisite $49 million in room with Chandler Parsons' cap hold sitting on the books. Rumors have already burbled that the Mavs don't want to offer Parsons a max after his knee issues, and that Parsons could seek his payday elsewhere.

The Mavs have whiffed on every big-name free agent since they let Tyson Chandler walk, and they will have a ton of competition for Whiteside and Conley; the Grizzlies are almost as confident about re-signing Conley as they were with Marc Gasol last offseason.

The Mavericks can keep Parsons' Bird rights as they negotiate with bigger fish to hedge against the nightmare scenario of losing out on everyone, though Parsons can torpedo that by signing someplace else right away. Teams are terrified about Parsons' knees and crow they will hold firm at a number below his max. But Parsons is eligible only for the lowest-tier max deal, starting at about $22 million, and a GM on thin ice with chambered cash might bite that bullet -- especially if he can persuade Parsons to take a shorter deal.

Parsons might want to lock in as much moola as possible now; he knows his knees better than anyone, and the uncertainty of a revised collective bargaining deal looms.

Regardless: Dallas again faces serious downside on the treadmill of mediocrity. Dirk Nowitzki doesn't want to leave, but he's also tired of losing in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16...flying-shelves