I'm not really sure why people think it's cyclical or why it will change anytime soon without some sort of rules or reffing change and the NBA have ZERO reason to change. High scoring games are popular. The big swings that the three can bring make games more exciting. Seems like something that the NBA loves and it's predicated on players being able to shoot which they are right now and the best/most prolific scorers aren’t retiring anytime soon.
Top NBA 3pt shooters 2017-2018 and their current age
Harden - 28
George - 28
Lowry - 30
Kemba - 28
Thompson - 28
Lillard - 27
Ellington - 30
Gordon - 29
Curry - 30
Ingles - 30
Add to that the number of shooters entering the league from the draft this year
Top Draft prospect shooters and their percentages
Zhaire Smith - 45%
Mikal Bridges - 44%
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - 44%
Landry Shamet - 44%
Aaron Holiday - 43%
Omari Spellman - 43%
Khyri Thomas - 42%
Mitchell Robinson - 41%
Wendell Carter Jr. - 41%
Caleb Martin - 40%
Donte Divencenzo - 40%
Marvin Bagley - 40%
Jaren Jackson Jr. - 40%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 40%
Elie Okobo - 40% (euro)
Gary Trent Jr. 40%
Miles Bridges - 39%
Anerfernee Simins - 38%
Grayson Allen - 37%
Kevin Huerter - 37%
Jacob Evans - 37%
Chandler Hutchison - 36%
Trae Young - 36%
Lonnie Walker - 35%
Kevin Knox - 34%
Collin Sexton - 34%
Luka Doncic - 31% (euro)
Michael Porter Jr.- 30% (injury?)
We have the highest 3pt% average of any draft class EVER. If anything the three is going to become a bigger deal in the near future.
In addition, every single year I looked at since 1997 had more threes than the year before. We're looking at a trend that started before Dirk entered the league and doesn't seem to be stopping. Not only does the NBA have no reason to curb the importance of threes, the trend has been going for over two decades.
It also makes it hard for a center to be effective. They can score more easily with defenses spread around the perimeter, but their FGs are only worth a 67% of what a three is worth. In addition, there are fewer close shots to block and the rebounds from threes most often bounce outside of the paint, meaning that centers are less important because defense, rebounding, AND scoring. It may be easier to score and pull down a rebound, but they're given fewer and fewer opportunities to do so.
It's why centers have gotten smaller, trimmer, and lighter-- and some have even learned to shoot threes. You have to be able to guard the perimeter, switch, and corral the long rebounds that are created by threes. Otherwise there are fewer and fewer shots to block/defend inside and fewer and fewer rebounds in the paint. To be effective guys have to move and play like guards/forwards.