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EricaLubarsky · 03-23-2022, 01:22 PM

The real question is where we want to end up. Only ten games left.

1) +14 Suns (statically eliminated)
2) +5 Grizzlies (7-3) (statistically VERY unlikely. Mavs would have to go 10-0 and Grizz 0-10)
3) +3 Warriors (4-6)
4) +1 Jazz (6-4)
5) -------Mavs-------------(7-3)
6) -1.5 Nuggets (6-4)
7) -2.5 Wolves (8-2)
8)-9.0 Clippers (statistically eliminated even if Mavs went 0-10 and Clippers wend 10-0)

Difficulty of remaining schedule
Grizzlies - 3rd hardest
Jazz - 4th hardest
Clippers - 6th hardest
Wolves - 7th hardest
Mavs - 28th hardest

My playoff priority - record -- how we get them
1) Warriors (3-1) -- (Warriors drop to 4/5 or Mavs drop to 6th) - Warriors just aren't as strong lately. Curry is likely out until the playoffs. May not even be back then. Luka averages 32ppg against them with good efficiency. I think if we had more time, this would be almost guaranteed. As it is, it's still very likely.

2 ) Grizzlies (3-1) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and win in the play-in to keep it). Another team we have won the season series against. As good as the Grizz have been, the Grizzlies just don't match up well with us. Luka has monster games against them (30pts, 11reb, 9ast on 53% shooting)

3) Jazz (1-2) -- (current standings, or Jazz climb to 3rd and Mavs fall to 6) Luka averages 29-11-9 against them, but the interior defense and outside shooting of the Jazz is lethal. It would be fitting that the first playoff series win would be against the Jazz when that was Dirk's first, but I'm not confident we could win 4 against them.

4) Nuggets (2-1) -- (VERY unlikely. Warriors would have to fall 5games with only 10 games left. Mavs would have to climb to 4th and Nuggets to 5th) - Even though we won the series against them, I want no part of the Nuggets. They are dangerous.

5) Suns (0-3) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose a game of the play-in to drop to 8. Statistically we'd have to end the season 0-10 to get 8th otherwise). I know we played the Suns early when we were bad, but I still want nothing to do with the Suns. Luka only averages 28-8-7, but on 39% and 22% from three. No one defends Luka better and the Suns have no weaknesses. They defend every position well. Inside and outside. They have scoring from every spot and clutch scoring. Nope. Just nope. Luckily there is a very low chance we get them.

6) No one (0-0) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose in the play-in). If we lost to the Clippers (who are locked into 8) and then the Lakers, I would cry forever and we wouldn't even make it to the playoffs.

Most likely opponents
According to 538
1) Jazz - 50% chance
2) Warriors - 25% chance
3) Grizzlies - 24% chance
4) Suns/all else - 1%

03-23-2022, 01:22 PM	#14
EricaLubarsky Inactive. Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Posts: 42,473	The real question is where we want to end up. Only ten games left. 1) +14 Suns (statically eliminated) 2) +5 Grizzlies (7-3) (statistically VERY unlikely. Mavs would have to go 10-0 and Grizz 0-10) 3) +3 Warriors (4-6) 4) +1 Jazz (6-4) 5) -------Mavs-------------(7-3) 6) -1.5 Nuggets (6-4) 7) -2.5 Wolves (8-2) 8)-9.0 Clippers (statistically eliminated even if Mavs went 0-10 and Clippers wend 10-0) Difficulty of remaining schedule Grizzlies - 3rd hardest Jazz - 4th hardest Clippers - 6th hardest Wolves - 7th hardest Mavs - 28th hardest My playoff priority - record -- how we get them 1) Warriors (3-1) -- (Warriors drop to 4/5 or Mavs drop to 6th) - Warriors just aren't as strong lately. Curry is likely out until the playoffs. May not even be back then. Luka averages 32ppg against them with good efficiency. I think if we had more time, this would be almost guaranteed. As it is, it's still very likely. 2 ) Grizzlies (3-1) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and win in the play-in to keep it). Another team we have won the season series against. As good as the Grizz have been, the Grizzlies just don't match up well with us. Luka has monster games against them (30pts, 11reb, 9ast on 53% shooting) 3) Jazz (1-2) -- (current standings, or Jazz climb to 3rd and Mavs fall to 6) Luka averages 29-11-9 against them, but the interior defense and outside shooting of the Jazz is lethal. It would be fitting that the first playoff series win would be against the Jazz when that was Dirk's first, but I'm not confident we could win 4 against them. 4) Nuggets (2-1) -- (VERY unlikely. Warriors would have to fall 5games with only 10 games left. Mavs would have to climb to 4th and Nuggets to 5th) - Even though we won the series against them, I want no part of the Nuggets. They are dangerous. 5) Suns (0-3) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose a game of the play-in to drop to 8. Statistically we'd have to end the season 0-10 to get 8th otherwise). I know we played the Suns early when we were bad, but I still want nothing to do with the Suns. Luka only averages 28-8-7, but on 39% and 22% from three. No one defends Luka better and the Suns have no weaknesses. They defend every position well. Inside and outside. They have scoring from every spot and clutch scoring. Nope. Just nope. Luckily there is a very low chance we get them. 6) No one (0-0) -- (Mavs fall to 7th and lose in the play-in). If we lost to the Clippers (who are locked into 8) and then the Lakers, I would cry forever and we wouldn't even make it to the playoffs. Most likely opponents According to 538 1) Jazz - 50% chance 2) Warriors - 25% chance 3) Grizzlies - 24% chance 4) Suns/all else - 1% Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 03-23-2022 at 01:37 PM.