[EricaLubarsky]

Assuming no ties:

14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4) - current position
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)

=====================================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

Of course, if we somehow end up keeping our pick (1-10), we still owe the Knicks 2024.

The worst possible scenario in my opinion is that we lose this pick to the Knicks, have no 1st/2nd round picks at all, lose talent this offseason, and still owe 2029 to the Nets unprotected so even if we tank, we can't keep that pick.

Best solution: tank hard to keep the pick, draft a big or defensive wing, SnT Kyrie or Luka for some role players and maybe a star-ish player, and get Luka some counseling to take care of his personal issues.