Because you're being too simple-minded about it. How many thought we were contenders before last season? We made it to the WCF after losing KP and Luka suffering an injury to start the Jazz series. Nobody could have predicted that.
We just don't know. Maybe we are play-in, maybe we are top 4. Could easily go either way depending on many variables.
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"Cream of the crop gon' rise to the top." -Jaden Hardy
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