[Evilmav2]

Which team took the better risk -- Kings or Pacers?

Hollinger
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

Finally.

We almost don't even care who went to the Pacers. All we care about is that Ron Artest was finally traded, bringing months of idle speculation to a merciful end and allowing the Pacers, not to mention the rest of the league, to get on with their lives.

What they did get, however, was much less than we originally suspected. When Indiana first put Artest on the market, there was talk that the Pacers wanted a young big man and cap relief, or perhaps an established veteran along with a draft pick, for Artest. Basketballwise, their demands were very reasonable. Artest is one of the best two-way players in the game, is at his physical peak and has a very reasonable contract with 2½ years remaining. Teams should have been falling all over themselves to acquire him.

Instead, Artest's knack for self-immolation scared away all but a few suitors, and those that did step up modified their offers to adjust for the risk Artest presents. As a result, the Pacers had to settle for the Kings' Peja Stojakovic, a deadly shooter who lacks Artest's defensive pedigree, has been hurt much of the year and is a free agent after the season.

When a team makes a trade as risky as this one -- and make no mistake, Sacramento is rolling a gigantic, fuzzy set of dice here -- it's hard to make a definitive claim about who "won." That's especially true when we're dealing with two organizations that have made few miscues in the past decade. What we can do, however, is break it down and see which side has done more to put the odds in its favor. Let's take a look:

Contracts: Artest is signed for 2½ more years, with a player option for 2008-09, at an average of $7.5 million for the next two years and $8.5 million for the option year. By NBA standards, he's underpaid. The contract is a blessing if Artest behaves himself, and a curse if he talks and fights his way off another roster. No other team would be willing to take a chance on him if he were to fail in Sacto, meaning the Kings would have to eat the last two years of the deal.

Because of the Kings' cap situation, the deal effectively was their offseason for 2006. With Artest's contract replacing Peja's expiring deal, the Kings are close to the luxury tax threshold even with Bonzi Wells' deal coming off the books. So unless the salary cap rises several million in the offseason (not bloody likely, judging by the crowds I've seen), Sacramento might not be in a position to use its midlevel exception. From the Kings' perspective, Artest was way better than any free agent the Kings could have obtained over the summer, so it made sense to deal now.

From Indiana's side, the big question is what its plans are regarding Stojakovic, and we can't know without first learning what the Pacers' plans are regarding the luxury tax. Indiana potentially could skirt the tax next season if it doesn't re-sign Stojakovic and the league grants the team cap relief for injured forward Jonathan Bender. However, it probably wouldn't sit well with Pacers fans to know their team essentially traded an All-Star forward for cap relief. That's why it seems likely Indy will look to either re-sign Peja or sign-and-trade him somewhere else for a piece that fits better.

Of course, there's one final piece to this puzzle -- what if Stojakovic doesn't opt out? The way his season has gone, that possibility can't be completely ruled out, in which case he'd play for Indiana next year while drawing a salary of $8.3 million.

Chemistry: Questions abound about how both players will fit into their new environments. Artest played with the Kings' Brad Miller in Indiana, but that was a very different system. Sacramento's offense is based on passing, cutting and shooting, with most plays originating from the high post. That's a far cry from Artest's preferred style of slowly backing down an opponent from the wing, and based on the comments he made about the Pacers' attack, it doesn't seem as though he'll meekly submit to Rick Adelman's will on this.

Obviously, the major speculation for Artest is off the court. The Kings have to be wondering whether he'll spend half his time suspended or creating various other distractions, and keeping him under control will be the biggest challenge of Adelman's coaching career. Sacramento already has one loose cannon in the locker room in Wells (recently honored as one of the 10 most hated athletes), and one can only shudder at the thought of what he and Artest might wreak together. Thankfully, Wells' impending free agency means they'll have only half a season together.

Stojakovic is a better fit with Indiana, although there are still question marks. The Pacers used Artest as their defensive stopper and would have liked to acquire a player to step into that role; clearly Peja doesn't qualify. As a result, Stephen Jackson and Fred Jones will have to continue to take on the tough defensive assignments. However, Peja should benefit from the double-teams Jermaine O'Neal gets in the post and the passing skills of Indiana's guards, and his new team's plodding style probably fits him better than Sacramento's footloose approach at this point in his career. He also has a former teammate, Scot Pollard, to show him the ropes and he has never been thought of as a problem in the locker room.

Talent: Two years ago, this would have been a push. Today, it's Artest by a mile. Stojakovic has dropped off badly the past two seasons, as bouts with foot and back problems have slowed him to a crawl. At his best, Peja is a devastating shooter who moves extremely well without the ball and is sneaky fast in transition, but he hasn't been at his best in some time. This season, he's down to a miserable 40.3 percent from the field, and his 13.68 PER is way below his career norm. Still, if he can get healthy, he offers an enticing package. His offense would be a shot in the arm for a Pacers team that has been in desperate need of another scorer ever since Artest mouthed his way off the team.

As for Artest, he offers two things the Kings have in short supply: A defensive stopper and an offensive player who can get his own shot. One reason the Kings have become so dependent on their passing and cutting is because so few of their players can create off the dribble; Artest immediately changes that. But his biggest impact will come at the defensive end, where he can take over Doug Christie's vacated role as the defensive stopper and provide a much-needed physical presence for one of the league's softest teams.

Team Needs: Here's why winning and losing in trades is so subjective: It partly depends on where a team is now and where it's headed. Indiana, for instance, has a clear mandate to win now. The Pacers view themselves as Eastern Conference title contenders, and since they're going to be paying $80 million in salary this year, they'd darn well better be.

That's why acquiring a player like Stojakovic was more enticing for the Pacers than picking up Nene from the Nuggets or Corey Maggette from the Clippers. Peja can help them this year, and if things work out right, he'll help them in the one area where they're hurting the most -- offense. Indiana needed a player who would at least give it a chance to compete with Detroit and Miami, and Peja gives the team that chance.

On the other hand, Stojakovic's tenure could end up being very short, and he's not exactly in top shape at the moment. I don't think the Pacers were unrealistic about their contender status in the East -- if Chauncey Billups pops a hammy, it's up for grabs -- but I do wonder how much Peja can do to improve their lot, this year or next.

The Kings, on the other hand, clearly are a team in transition. In the last 18 months, the old core of Webber, Stojakovic, Christie, Vlade Divac and Bobby Jackson has been scattered to the corners of the earth, leaving Mike Bibby as the lone holdover. Yet, at 17-23, the Kings are only three games out of the final playoff spot, and with Artest's arrival and Shareef Abdur-Rahim's return, it's no longer outlandish to suggest they could grab a spot.

In fact, it's a pretty astounding deal if you look at it from the Sacramento side. If Artest acts like an idiot and alienates everyone, the team will have to rebuild -- but since the Kings were 17-24 without much young talent in the pipeline, they would have had to do that anyway. By adding Artest, Sacramento effectively gives itself a 30-month window to try to win something with a Bibby/Artest/Abdur-Rahim/Miller core. Given the reasonable nature of Artest's contract, this is about as risk-free as a risk can get. Even if it fails, the Kings haven't lost any ground.

That's why when it comes down to it, Sacramento got the better end of this deal. The Western team essentially waited out the Pacers to get a star-caliber talent for a player they probably were going to lose anyway. This deal involves calculated risks by both sides, and the range of possible outcomes is all over the map. But in terms of probability, you have to like the odds better from Sacramento's end than from Indiana's.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. His book "Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06" is available at Amazon.com and Potomac Books. To e-mail him, click here.
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Men in tights

DARREN ROVELL
posted: Wednesday, January 25, 2006 | Feedback

Over the past couple weeks, I've noticed more NBA players wearing tights. First it was Kobe. Then Michael Redd, and then LeBron? All of them are Nike-sponsored athletes and they're all wearing this thing called the Nike Pro Tight, which is somehow selling for $35.

Here are the selling points:

Le Bron James

• "Dri-FIT fabrication wicks moisture away from your body to keep you dry" (Um, are your legs really sweating that much?)

• "Flat-seam construction eliminates chafing" (All I know is that chafing occurs at about Mile 17 in a marathon, but in your average basketball game?)

• "Drawcord at waist makes for a perfect fit" (You still haven't convinced me here, and plenty of things that look better than this have a drawcord.)

LeBron first wore the black tights on Saturday and scored 51 points, but then Tuesday night he came out in white tights. I don't know how many points he scored (I know I can look it up) because he just looked so ridiculous. At one point his feet were apart and he was standing around so it looked like he was doing a plié (think ballet). As a kid, I liked the idea of being in a class with lots of girls, so tights were pretty much the reason I would never, ever entertain ballet class. Now NBA players are sporting them?

So what's LeBron's take? (Besides the fact that he gets paid more than $10 million a year to try these things out for Nike?) "I'm 2-0 with them," James said after the game Tuesday night. "I'm wearing them to keep warm so when I go to the bench, it [his sore left knee] doesn't stiffen up."

I'm still having trouble figuring out exactly how good these things can possibly be. For a greater history of these tights, check out this column from our Uni Watch writer, Paul Lukas.

Adibok

The $3.8 billion Adidas-Reebok merger is moving along. On Tuesday, the European Commission concluded that the deal didn't threaten competition because the two companies had entirely separate marketing philosophies and products. On Wednesday, Reebok shareholders approved the deal.

Under the terms of the agreement announced on Aug. 3, 2005, Reebok shareholders will receive $59 per share in cash upon the close of the transaction.

Sources tell me that, as of now, the NFL and the NBA will still fall under the Reebok brand, though changes could be made in the near future. There are rumors in Europe that soccer teams that have deals with Reebok, including Liverpool, are likely to be switched to adidas because that is the more popular brand over there.

Nike's annual sales total $14 billion, while adidas grosses $8 billion and Reebok sells $4 billion worth of products.

Australian Open Biz Notes

It has been a great run for adidas. The women's Cinderella story was Martina Hingis, who finally lost in the quarterfinals to Kim Clijsters. Hingis is sponsored by adidas, which must be paying her peanuts since she wasn't worth much before this tournament. Adidas also sponsors Marcos Baghdatis, who will have a shot of playing in the finals if he can get by David Nalbandian. It's a good pickup for the brand, especially given that Baghdatis was wearing the swoosh last year. Baghdatis came into the tournament ranked No. 54 in the world. From a marketing standpoint, his girlfriend, Camille Neviere, is a nice added bonus.

More Than A Survivor

"Survivor" winner Rupert Boneham, who won $1 million on the TV show in 2004, has a new business. It's called RFB Enterprises and its business is in promotion, real estate and production companies. According to the Indianapolis Star, Boneham's production company, Tournament Towers, has secured a deal to build the walkways, connections and floors of tents for Super Bowl vendors in Detroit.