This still doesn't even come close to my definition of break the bank. Yes, under certain circumstances the Mavs could do a SNT with Detroit. But to do this the Mavs must lose players close to the contract that Billups would sign, and the trading must be done with Detroit -- ie Dumars gets to be involved. Also, let's just agree up front that Billups doesn't take the MLE, so the Mavs cannot just sign him outright.
76. Can a free agent be signed and immediately traded?
Under no circumstances can a team sign and then trade another team's free agent. But there is a rule that allows teams to re-sign their own free agents for trading purposes, called the sign-and-trade rule. Under the sign-and-trade rule, the player is re-signed and immediately traded to another team. This is done by adding a clause to the contract which stipulates that the contract is invalid if the player's rights are not traded to the specific team within 48 hours.
No other team can just SNT him only the Pistons. Any team under the Salary cap by the amount that he would sign for... ie close to max, can sign him. Not the teams under the luxury cap, the ones under the salary cap. IE their are only a few (I think 4 ) teams actually far enough under the cap at this time. These are the only teams that can sign Billups to a FA deal....those and the Pistons. The Pistons using his Bird rights can sign him to any salary they want, including going well over the luxury tax. The Pistons have the right to trade him within 48 hrs to any team, provided that the Pistons will take back within 125% of the amount of salary for the first year of the trade. If Billups signs for say 70 million over 5 years, starting at 12 million with an increase of 1mill every year, then the Pistons would have to take back 9.6m in salary for next year minimum.
Net increase in salary -- 12 - 9.6 = 2.4M Now 2.4M would more than break my bank account, but I don't think that amount is party money during his single days for Cuban.
So although he could be acquired, lets face it, it wouldn't break the bank.
Now, let's go with the odds.
Billups takes the MLE -- 1 in forget it too many 0's.
Billups signs with one of the few teams under the cap --- 1 in 200
Billups convinces Detroit to do a SNT -- 1 in 80
Billups convinces Detroit to do a SNT - Detroit decides to take back close to max salary because they can gain players/picks, Dallas is the team that offers the best players/picks/salary structure, and somehow the best team in the east and the best team in the west want to break up core players --- 1 in too many 0's.
Billups signs with the Pistons and they just pay the tax. --- 1 in 2
Possible yes -- I really think that the odds are better that we are involved in a nuclear war with Iran and their is no NBA season, than Billups ending up in Dallas next year - although I must agree it is a possibility no matter how unlikely.
Good reading for novices on the Salary cap:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm
Oh yea, I'm about 40 as well, and Silk it would have been much easier to just admit you were wrong up front than make this into a long thread about something that odds are against ever happening.