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Originally Posted by VA-Mavs-Fan
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Giannis being second surprises me. I honestly think there's no way they'll give it to Giannis again, no matter how awesome he is. His reputation is somewhat damaged from the playoff disappointments, and now he's in that spot where he has to at least get to the finals before they'll even consider him for MVP again. I think Harden is in the same boat. Both of those guys could average 40 pt triple doubles and they still wouldn't get the MVP. Plus there's also just fatigue. Even if he had won a title already, it's extremely rare for someone to win the award three times in a row. The last guy to do it was Bird. I think they're actually far more likely to give it to Lebron again, for narrative reasons for than anything.
My top five MVP voting prediction (not necessarily in this order.)
Luka
LeBron
AD
Tatum
Embiid
I'd also throw in Durant as a wild card. MVP voters fall in love with a good story. If he's even 80% of what he was before, and the Nets are at or near the top of the east, the comeback story alone might win him the award.