[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by Male30Dan

Let it go. We get it - you think each individual game is completely independent and there is no emotional carry over into the game other than the fact that there is a finite percentage of win expectancy at home vs. on the road. We get it. You watched a show about it too. You also took some classes and got a job. Congrats. Doesn't make your OPINION on the matter right. Neither is mine by the way. It is my OPINION.

No, you don't get it. I said that's the null hypothesis, and there is insufficient evidence to abandon it. That only means that, until there is sufficient evidence against it, it is the soundest approach...

Especially when it comes to predictive matters. It's easy to look back at Game Six of the 2011 NBA Finals and say "Wow, that momentum from the previous two games sure was effective in carrying the Mavs to victory." It's also easy to look at Game Six of the 2010 NBA Finals and say "Wow, those back-to-back wins in Boston sure made them due for a letdown."

But it's all revisionist history. When looking ahead, you simply can't tell. The only thing you have to go on is you know where the game is being played, and you know how successful teams typically are at home.

But perhaps looking at facts and weighing unknowns with historical percentages is too arrogant, while valuing your own opinion is more humble. I would have figured it would be the other way around, but who knows.

The difference is that I don't ONLY use dry facts and percentages. I use them, sure, and they help me come to an overall conclusion (just like I do when taking into account various things that Thiggy and 5-0 have argued with me about in the past), but I don't only use them. I am quite consistent on this. I always let my eyes play a role. I always let my ears listen to what people that are far more Fing close to the situation than you and I (or your boy narrarating a GD TV show).

Well, I'm sure your well balanced approach is most reliable. Congratulations.

Of course, it makes sense. If your job is to offer sound advice you are likely quite methodical and very, very strict on using facts only so it doesn't surprise me that you let those same policies affect your every day life. That's fine. Your opinion. But don't sit on your GD high horse and act like my opinion is all guts and fairy tales and that me and others that have disagreed with you are in over our heads. Get the F over yourself.

Yeah, that's about right. Basically, I use my knowledge of probability and statistics to become wealthy off of people who prefer to rely on gut instincts and hot streaks. So it would probably be best if I just lay low and let them continue.