Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
It's a very simple idea: Suppose the home team has a 60.4% chance to win any game in a series. Apparently they arrived at this number looking at history(!). Then watch the graph as it tracks the ebb and flow of the series.
These odds mathematically gave a 46.7% chance of the Mavs winning the series from the beginning. This made sense, since at the time they lacked the home advantage. Then these are how the odds evolved (and would have evolved) going into each game as the series progressed:
Game Six: 63.5% (win: 100.0% loss: 39.6%)
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So using your own numbers, in a 2-3-2 format where both teams defend their home court for the first 5 games of the series, the team up 3-2 with games 6 and 7 on the road has a 63.5% chance of winning the series, even though they don't have HCA. I'm not trying to argue with you, I'm just trying to make sure this is what you're stating and agreeing with. Because if it is, it's a pretty good indicator that 2-3-2 isn't very beneficial to the home team. Which position would you rather be in after 5 games? I'm not going to run the numbers but I'm pretty sure in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, if the home team wins every game up until game 5, and the team with HCA is up 3-2 with game 6 on the road and game 7 at home, their odds of winning the series would be much greater than 36.5%...so one would imagine that HCA would be more beneficial in a 2-2-1-1-1, which was my point all along. I'm actually interested in your rebuttal to this.