Quote:
Originally Posted by tap2390
I completely agree. Will also give us a very valuable asset (our pick) in a crucial offseason.
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Missing the playoffs will not guarantee we keep the pick. In fact, we are almost guaranteed to
NOT keep the pick.
Statistically, we are unlikely to drop out of the play-in. Assuming we lose the play-in and thus miss the playoffs, we would have roughly a 4% chance of a top-10 pick, which means a 95-96% chance that New York gets a 13th/14th pick.
It is statistically possible to drop out of the play-in as well, but...
A) We are unlikely to lose the tanking race against the Lakers (no LeBron, unhappy Davis), Blazers, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs. Lakers are better, but without LeBron they are nothing. I don't think we can beat the other four teams in tankage.
B) Even if we did get to 11th, it only gets us a 9% chance of keeping the pick. In other words, a 91% chance Knicks gets a very nice 11th/12th pick.