Thread: Fire Kidd
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Old 03-02-2023, 02:26 PM   #104
washedklean77
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Missing the playoffs will not guarantee we keep the pick. In fact, we are almost guaranteed to NOT keep the pick.

Statistically, we are unlikely to drop out of the play-in. Assuming we lose the play-in and thus miss the playoffs, we would have roughly a 4% chance of a top-10 pick, which means a 95-96% chance that New York gets a 13th/14th pick.

It is statistically possible to drop out of the play-in as well, but...
A) We are unlikely to lose the tanking race against the Lakers (no LeBron, unhappy Davis), Blazers, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs. Lakers are better, but without LeBron they are nothing. I don't think we can beat the other four teams in tankage.
B) Even if we did get to 11th, it only gets us a 9% chance of keeping the pick. In other words, a 91% chance Knicks gets a very nice 11th/12th pick.
Lets not forget that the Mavs strength of schedule for the remainder of the season is officially a moot point as this team has proven that they can lose to anyone. So while the teams that live underneath the Mavs in the standings at this time may very well play around .500 ball for the remainder of the season, the Mavs may do worse. I fully anticipate the Mavs being a game under .500 come Sunday night.
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