<< Good post Dude.
I have a few questions for the those who want to replace Nellie now and are using the Phil Jackson replacing Doug Collins as an example of why it would be good. >>
To start, I was merely using the Jackson example to refute Dude's argument, which was essentially that Donnie shouldn't even be considered to replace Nellie because he doesn't have "skins on the wall." I wasn't saying that because Jackson succeeded that Donnie necessarily will. I was only saying that sometimes a head coaching change is made even if a team continues to improve, because the change is necessary to have the correct mentality (and/or coach) to succeed in the playoffs. That's what happened with the Bulls. Collins was fired for the sole reason that Krause didn't believe that he was the one to take that team to a championship.
<< If Phil had replaced Doug a year earlier, would the Bulls have won their 1st championship a year earlier? Could they have beaten the Pistons and Blazers that year or would they have still needed another year for the players and team to mature? If Phil had actually won less games the Doug the previous year would Phil have still kept his job long enough to coach the Bulls to the 1st of 6 NBA titles? >>
See above.
<< Let's say we replace Nellie with Jr. this year and Jr. can't take us to the WCF. Do we fire Jr. during the summer? Or do we give him a year to prove himself? Let's say we give him a year and at this point next year we are 20-10 instead of 25-5. That's still a very good record, but a step backward. Do we then fire Jr. Ok let's say that we do (gotta keep somewhat with the knee jerk theme here) and replace him with AJ. AJ can't get us to the WCF. We fire him in the summer because he didn't take us to the WCF. We then hire one of Rick Adelmans assistants to coach off of the back-to-back champion Kings. The 1st 30 games we go 16-14 as players struggle to learn the nuances of their 4th coach is 2 years. We fire him. >>
So is it your position then that Donnie's not a good candidate to replace Nellie simply because we don't know for certain whether he will win a title or not? If so, I suppose we could make that argument every single time a coach is replaced. You don't KNOW whether his replacement WILL do better. You have to speculate. And that's what we're doing, based upon what we know about Nellie and Donnie.
The better question is, "Do you honestly see Nellie as being capable of coaching this team to a title? And if so, how long do you give him to prove that he really is?"
<< This isn't best case scenario, but it isn't worst case either. You fire Nellie when the Mavs are doing great and when we hit the 1st substantial slump as a team just watch and see how players chemistry will be. >>
Again, I'm advocating that Cuban wait and see how the team does in the playoffs this year. If they make it to the WCF, keep him around for a couple more years. If not, you simply promote Donnie and let Nellie be the GM, per his existing contract. That wouldn't involve firing Nellie at all. Also, I don't buy the argument that a slump under Donnie would hurt chemistry. Donnie's been with this team since the beginning (of Nellie's tenure), and the players all know and respect him.
<< Also, consider this: we may need to put Raef in the doghouse for a year to get him to where he needs to be. >>
Nellie's even said he can't afford to do that.
<< Next year might be the year for us. We could win no matter who is coaching. We could only win if Jr. is coaching. We could only win if Nellie is coaching. The odds are in favor of keeping Nellie as long as the team continues to improve. Once improvement plateaus or declines does the risk of change begin to become attractive. >>
Again, if they make the WCF, I have no problem re-upping with Nellie for 1 or 2 more years. If not, I do.
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