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Originally Posted by Underdog
I dunno, Doncic is kinda souring on me the more I actually watch him -- I've seen a couple full games now and not just highlights... The Euro competition just looks vastly inferior to what I'm seeing at the college level, and I fear that a lot of this kid's weaknesses are going to be exposed in the NBA. Like, he gets a lot of assists, but his passing lanes are largely unhindered. He's a good ball handler and crafty at getting to the hoop, which mitigates his lack of athleticism, but I'm not seeing a ton of athleticism in his competition either, which makes me wonder if he can still pull it off against NBA players. He's able to use his size to make up for his poor lateral movement on defense, but he isn't really strong enough to get away with that in the NBA... And I do wonder how effective he'll be on offense without having the ball in his hands all the time, especially since he isn't exactly the most efficient shooter -- his game seems to be fairly reliant on volume at the moment.
Not that I think he'll be an outright bust or anything, but I do worry more and more about how his abilities are going to translate to the NBA level, especially if he's next to a ball-dominant guard like DSJ. Sure he's young and has plenty of room for growth, but I'm just not seeing a raw skillset that's going to dominate against superior competition the way I do with Ayton, Bamba, or even Mikal Bridges... Basically, you need to be either extremely athletic or extremely efficient to be a star in the NBA, and Doncic is neither.
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Solid point about passing lanes being largely unhindered. I didn't see Doncic as an elite passer in most of the highlights I watched. I did watch one highlight reel of his, from when he was younger actually where he made some very elite-level passes. But, again I think he's more of a SG than a sees the court PG.
I have to disagree about the level of his competition. Here's who he faced in just the Eurobasket tournament this fall: Lauri Markkanen, Nick Calathes, Omri Casspi, Gal Mekel, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier, Joffrey Lauvergne, Kevin Seraphin, Nando De Colo, Kristaps Porzingis, Davis Bertans, Sergio Rodriguez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Ricky Rubio, Willy Hernangomez, Juancho Hernangomez, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. 18 current or former NBA players. He scored on Porzingis 3 times, including a very nice move in the lane to create space. I mean, Trae Young isn't having to try & score over 7-3 oppponents. I see Doncic's competition as a major plus for scouting him. I'm not worried about him being able to get by NBA defenders. His handle is just that good, imo, and he really displays excellent 1 on 1 skills. Plus, he has that pull up, quick release, if he does have a bit of trouble getting by defenders. I think as his jump shot becomes more consistent, it'll only further to aide him getting by NBA defenders, in a similar fashion to how it helps Steph.
I do share your concern on how effective he's going to be without having the ball in his hands all the time. To me that's a big concern. It's almost like no coach has ever had him share the ball before. I really wonder how that would work. I wouldn't want DSJ to play 2nd fiddle to Doncic in terms of handling the ball, and the way Doncic needs the ball in his hands so much & really isn't an elite passer, from what I can tell, I think that would definitely impact Harrison Barnes' production. Will Barnes be okay with that? I don't know. Not even sure I have that diagnosed properly, but it's definitely a situation that would have to be worked out & I don't know, nor would the Mavs or any other NBA team, how Doncic would respond to making that adjustment in his game.