Dallas-Mavs.com Forums - View Single Post

Magnum_3_Ball · 01-25-2018, 02:27 AM

Back to the Tank Watch...

There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks.

That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs.

Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record.

LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming.

Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites.

Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about.

Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis.

Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose.

Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic.

Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order.

Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June.

Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome.

Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race"

1) Sacramento
2) Atlanta
3) Orlando
4) Phoenix
5) Dallas
6) Chicago
7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn)
8) Charlotte
9) Memphis
10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers)

Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!

01-25-2018, 02:27 AM	#273
Magnum_3_Ball Banned Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 591	Back to the Tank Watch... There's really only 9 other teams the Mavs are realistically competing with at this point for the worst record in the league. With the Mavs loss tonight & Utah's win, the Mavs now have a 4 game edge on Utah. I don't see Utah making up that ground. Plus, they're only 4.5 games out of the 8 seed. That's enough for the FO to hold on & keep the Jazz pushing for Ws, at least for several more weeks. That leaves Charlotte, LA Lakers, Chicago, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis, Phoenix, Orlando, Atlanta, and Sacramento in competition with the Mavs. Charlotte - The Mavs currently have a 4 game lead on the Hornets for the worst record. Charlotte has currently had the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule so far. A much easier, more winnable schedule is ahead. Granted the Mavs have had the 2nd most difficult SOS. Charlotte is more more talented than the Mavs. The only concern here is Kemba, Batum and/or others are traded & Charlotte has trouble taking advantage of their easier schedule. That said, they already have 19 wins & I'm not sure the Mavs see more than 25-27 wins this season. I look at the Hornets as a long shot to finish ahead of the Mavs for worst record. LA Lakers - Mavs are currently up on them 2.5 games for worst record. The Lakers clearly aren't trying to tank. They just pulled out a W last night vs the Celtics. Which makes sense because they have zero incentive to tank. Their 2018 1st round draft pick will either belong to Boston or Philadelphia. Not to mention, Luke Walton is taking some heat, there's pressure on Lonzo Ball to perform. The Lakers players have to feel pressure to perform to stay on the roster for next year with expected FAs joining the team. They're a team that's going to play their hearts out & not try to tank. They're also tied for the 7th most difficult SOS, so more winnable games are coming. Chicago - Mavs currently are up 2 games on the Bulls for the worst record. Chicago is more talented imo. They have a legitimate experienced center in Lopez. They're talented and deep at PF with Markkanen, Mirotic, and Portis. They're weak at SF, but they also just got Zach LaVine back & they'll get Cameron Payne in a few weeks. Payne isn't a remarkable talent, but he's a 23 yr old prospect with some skills that'll be out there competing for his next contract. The type of guy that even if the FO gave him more minutes in an effort to tank, he could still sneak out a few Ws they'd prefer they didn't. Plus, the Bulls have had the 6th most difficult SOS so far this season, more winnable games are on the way. I honestly would have the Mavs favored significantly to finish with a worst record than the Bulls. Probably would call them 2-1 or maybe even 3-1 favorites. Brooklyn Nets - The Mavs are currently up 2 games on the Nets for worst record. The Nets 1st round pick this year belongs to Cleveland, so they have zero incentive to tank. The biggest problem with the Nets is they're not very talented & they may be a case of a team that tanks without setting out to. The good news is they've gotten DeAngelo Russell back 3 games ago. So far this year the Nets are 7-9 with Russell and 11-21 without Russell. That's an incomplete comparison because I don't know the SOS differences between the two timetables. Also, if Russell equated to that big a difference in wins, he'd be laughably more valuable than LeBron & we know that's not true. Still, Russell was averaging 21.1 ppg before he went down and doing so while shooting well below career averages from 3 & from the line (his FG% is up but not unreasonably so). Definitely helps to add a 21.1 ppg scorer back to the starting lineup. The Nets are middle of the pack in SOS this year. I legitimately worry about them sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record if they have more injuries, go cold, or the Mavs get hot. On the brightside, they're getting Toronto's 1st round pick this year, so they don't have to panic & trade off a piece just for a draft pick; and on the other hand, they really don't have any impact players to trade away that we would need to worry about. Memphis - The Mavs are up 1.5 games on the Grizz for worst record. Grizzlies have had the 4th most difficult SOS this season. More winnable games on the horizon. At some point, probably post ASG break, they'll get Conley Jr back in the fold. Normally, I'd be inclined to say Conley Jr coming back might not matter. I feel like Memphis (outside of signing Chandler Parsons to that ridiculous contract) is a savvy organization and totally capable of inventing another injury for Conley Jr if they decide to go in full tank mode. However, they just fired their head coach David Fizdale, with some reports saying it was at Marc Gasol's request. They only have Gasol for one more season beyond this one before he can opt out. I feel like the FO is going to be much more inclined to try and string some Wins together to keep Gasol happy. That may be wishful thinking, but still I don't know how well it would sit with Gasol if he knows the FO is keeping Conley Jr out of the lineup in order to tank (and what he might interrupt as rebuild... especially if they draft a big man). If they do just put Conley Jr back in the rotation facing an easier 2nd half schedule, then Memphis should be able to finish with a better record than the Mavs. Would help if the Mavs can be smart enough to dump their March 10th matchup w/ Memphis. Phoenix - Mavs are up 1 game on the Suns for worst record. Phoenix is tied for the 18th most difficult SOS, so some slightly tougher games are in their future. Just the fact they have Devin Booker makes them more talented than the Mavs imo. Booker & TJ Warren coupled with a mix of Chandler, Monroe, Len & Chriss as your Bigs. I'd say Phoenix has a slight talent edge (at the moment). Phoenix is definitely a team that could and should trade some pieces away. Heard Monroe is rumored to be dealt at the deadline. They're also void of a playmaking PG. I could easily see the Suns sneaking ahead of the Mavs for worst record. Hopefully the Mavs are smart and drop their remaining 2 games to Phoenix. Need to be rooting for a loss to the Suns next Wednesday in Phoenix. That would be a huge game to give away. Then we host the Suns the final game of the season, which if we need to lose to stay ahead of them for the worst record, you'd hope we have the good common sense to lose. Orlando - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Magic for the worst record. ORL has had the 11th most difficult SOS this season, so some slightly more winnable games are on their horizon. Now, we're entering the phase of teams the Mavs are underdogs to finish ahead of for worst record. There's not a ton to hold onto here, but the Magic should get Vucevic back post ASG break. That can't hurt. Gordon is having a breakout year, so hopefully he just continues to improve. Payton is fighting for his NBA life at this point, so you would hope that would push him to play better (altho I'm not sure he can do much better than 52.4 FG%). I think the fact the Magic didn't dump Fournier is an encouraging sign that they're not totally going into tank mode. I give the Mavs at least a reasonable shot of sneaking ahead of the Magic for worst record. Would be really sweet to drop the April 4th matchup vs the Magic in Orlando. It's the least we could do since we beat them earlier in the year. Smh... Hopefully by April the Mavs are in full on tank mode & wise enough to dump this game to the Magic. Atlanta - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the worst record. ATL is tied for the 4th softest SOS so far this season, so tougher games are on the way for the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the few teams in the league that I can safely say the Mavs are more talented than. It was really nice to drop both games to the Hawks this year given that fact. Honestly, I really think the Mavs would need some luck to finish ahead of the Hawks for worst record. They'd need a Harrison Barnes injury and the Hawks staying healthy, getting hot etc. Otherwise, we're gonna need to win the lottery to finish ahead of the Hawks in the 2018 draft order. Sacramento - Mavs are currently 1.5 games behind the Kings for the worst record. Here comes the leader in the clubhouse for the #1 overall pick. The Kings are already benching veterans. Taking turns sitting Vince Carter, George Hill, Zach Randolph etc. Their head coach Dave Joerger has already been quoted talking about the vets being professionals about it. Not to mention it's looking very likely they'll deal away George Hill and others at the deadline. They're tied for the 10th softest SOS this season, so tougher games are on the horizon. The only hope the Mavs have to finish ahead of the Kings is to either A) Win the lottery and/or B) get smart, start tanking games themselves right now (we do have 3 more games with SAC this yr, including 2 games before the ASB. I'll be down on my hands & knees praying for losses those nights). Plus, hope the Kings can back into a few Ws like they did Tues vs Orlando (and hopefully 3 more times vs us!). Short of that, I can't see any way the Mavs are picking ahead of the Kings come June. Recap: In particular, every Orlando, Phoenix, and Brooklyn win right now is huge for the Mavs. To a lesser extent, Memphis & Chicago wins too. Obviously, we're not hating a trade to get a piece like Barea or Wes Matthews out of here. Heard a radio interview with DSJ saying that Matthews has been his most helpful mentor this season, so I think Matthews is probably here for the foreseeable future. Just seems like the organization really likes him. Carlisle loves Barea that's well known. We gotta root for non-career threatening injuries. Any of those are more than welcome. Here's a realistic projection of the worst record "race" 1) Sacramento 2) Atlanta 3) Orlando 4) Phoenix 5) Dallas 6) Chicago 7) Cleveland (via Brooklyn) 8) Charlotte 9) Memphis 10) Philadelphia (via LA Lakers) Could also see the Mavs sneaking into the 3rd spot, but making a conservative projection. Just don't see them finishing any worse than 6th. So, I would put their realistic range between 3rd & 6th. Would be sweet to hit that Lotto! One time baby!!