Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Mavdog
very simplistic dalm.
unfortunately, the reality is not that simple.
lebanon has just recently begun to pull itself out of years of civil war. their economy was improving, their political institutions were becoming stronger. not strong enough to disarm hezbollah, but becoming strong enough to talk about it.
imho there will not be any winners out of this save for the iranians. not a good scene...
|
The political systems do not have to disarm the Hezbollah. They have a police force in the neighboring country of Israel that would be fine with not shedding innocent blood, and just shedding the blood of the terrorist. The leadership of Lebanon would have to work with Israel temporarily though to make this happen. At least till they had built the strength to do it themselves. I am not sure Lebanon will ever be able to work with Israel though.
Unfortunately you are correct in that it is not that simple. They would basically be where Iraq is now -- having widespread terrorism happening inside their own borders for a while. The only way they can become independant though, and control their own destiny is to control their borders, and control the people within them.
Winners -- NONE -- I wouldn't even say Iran will be a winner, because if things go the wrong way for them, then they are into a war they can't win.