I've been paying close attention to each of the "tank" teams the past several weeks i.e. who's been bought out, who's sitting, which players are getting FG attempts, etc. I went through each of the bottom 10 teams & projected their final record. I recorded the projected win/loss for each time a bottom 10 team played each other, so I couldn't have projected a win for 2 teams when only 1 team could win or 2 losses when only 1 team could lose.
Here's my projected bottom 10 final records:
MEM 20-62
PHX 22-60
ATL 22-60
SAC 23-59
BKN 23-59
DAL 25-57
ORL 25-57
CHI 27-55
NYK 27-55
LAL 36-46
Of note, ORL has a stretch from March 24th thru April 4th where they play vs PHX, vs BKN, vs CHI, @ ATL, @ NYK, vs DAL. In theory, they could go 6-0 during this cream puff stretch, but their management may elect to make some changes. For example, Aaron Gordon & Nikola Vucevic could "sprain" their ankles March 22nd vs PHI. If they don't go after these games, they could drop many of them & then they shoot up to the top of the worst record standings. Fwiw, I have them beating DAL on the 4th, even though it's the 2nd night of a back-to-back for them & they're coming in from New York the previous night when Dallas is off the night before. If DAL wins that game, then they lose the tie with ORL at 25 wins each. I just went with ORL because they're a fiesty bunch, Gordon, Vucevic, Hezonja & now Isaac have all been playing well since the break & they have guys who can make shots in the final minutes like Fournier, so they seem to stay in some of these tight games late & pull a few of them out.
I view CHI as a similar fiesty bunch. They showed as much vs us on Friday. But, I have them winning a few of these games that they're just as likely to break down, have bad turnovers & shoot themselves out of games. I think Portis is a difference maker & he's supposedly getting a 5 game audition in the starting lineup that I don't think he'll relinquish the rest of the season. If CHI doesn't match their bad stretches with just as many good stretches & knock off a team here or there that you wouldn't project them to, then they'll jump in front of the Mavs with a worse record.
In this scenario, DAL & ORL tie for the 6th worst record, and the season series is tied also at 1-1. I'm going to literally flip a coin & see who goes in front, since I don't know what the next tiebreaker would be.
DAL won the coin flip, and in this realistic projection, they finish with the 6th overall worst record. Unfortunately at the draft lottery, the Bulls lucked out & snagged the #1 overall pick, which pushed DAL down to the 7th overall selection.
Good Bye DeAndre Ayton!
Good Bye Luka Doncic!
Good Bye Jaren Jackson Jr!
Good Bye Marvin Bagley III! (Whew! Thank God!)
Good Bye Greg Oden 2.0... I mean Michael Porter Jr! (Double Whew!!)
Good Bye Mo Bamba!
HELLO KEVIN KNOX!!! Welcome to Dallas!!
Orlando reaches on Collin Sexton
The Knicks take Mikal Bridges
And, the Sixers take Trae Young... How effin' scary would that be?
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