Maybe none of this stuff in the East will matter, because I think at least the top 5 teams in the league are out West, but this is an interesting topic anyway.
- Cleveland - This is assuming they get Kevin Love. I'm almost positive that this will happen. If not, maybe drop them down to #2. I honestly think they'd still win the East (regular season) either way as long as LeBron stays healthy.
- Chicago - Great looking roster, but can Rose/Gasol/Noah all stay healthy? Recent history says no. If they get 70+ out of all three guys then they have a great chance at winning the East, but I bet at least one of these guys misses 25+ games.
- Miami - Rebounded very nicely after losing LeBron, but honestly they're mostly this high because the East is awful. I expect Bosh to re-establish himself as one of the best players in the league. He's been very overlooked for the past few years.
- Toronto - Another nice roster, but their lack of one dominating scorer that can take games over is probably going to prevent them from home-court advantage for more than one round. I wonder if they've given any consideration to selling high on Derozan in hopes of getting a more dynamic scorer.
- Washington - I really like Washington. I think they're salty, great athletes, and they could create the most turnovers in the league defensively. I just don't know if I like them better than any of the above teams. They have, to me, a very high ceiling. I'm expecting them to win something like 45-48 games, but they could easily make the jump and win 55.
- Indiana - Losing Lance Stephenson is really going to hurt them. Chemistry-wise, I'm not sure he was that big of a deterrent in the locker room, but on the court he was invaluable to them. They now lack a reliable go-to scorer that can create in the halfcourt. Paul George might be that guy sometime soon, but this year I think their offense is going to be one of the worst in the league.
- Atlanta - I love Horford and I hope he stays healthy, but again the odds are just not that great if you factor in recent history. I think it would be smart of the Hawks to try to pick up a starting-caliber center so Horford can play more PF and take less of a beating down low. To me, Horford is one of the five or six best big men in the league if he's healthy and put in the right situation.
- Charlotte - I hope the Hornets began a trend of consistent success (or at least playoff berths) last year. I like almost every player on the roster... I think they have a great coach and they should be better in the halfcourt this year with the addition of Stephenson. But losing John McRoberts is going to be really tough to get over.
Among the also-rans, I think
Brooklyn could be as good as a #6 seed, but with the loss of Pierce, the fragility of Deron Williams (double ankle surgery this summer... yikes!) and Brook Lopez, and the decrepitude of KG, there are just too many things that have to go right for them to compete. The losses Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce are also going to be a pretty big blow for them.
Detroit is probably one or two roster-shaping moves (i.e. dumping Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings) away from making the playoffs, and we still don't even know if Greg Monroe will be back for sure. I have a lot of faith on Stan Van Gundy as a coach, but whether he can rebuild this roster remains to be seen. If they replaced Jennings and Smith with competent starters that can shoot, they'd be right in the mix for the playoffs. But I see this as a frustrating year for SVG and the Pistons.
New York just has a terrible roster, and I don't buy into Derek Fisher as a coach yet.
Milwaukee has a handful of really great looking prospects (Antetokounmpo [which I can pronounce but not spell], Parker [though he looked rough in Summer League play], Henson, Wolters and Sanders) but I don't think any of those guys are ready to start on a playoff team just yet. Kidd might be the right long-term fit as a coach, but I don't see any reason for playoff optimism out of them yet.
Orlando has the same sort of exciting young nucleus, but they also seem to lack a playoff starting-caliber player at any position, except for Channing Frye. They'll look a lot better in two years if they can add one more impact rookie and keep developing those guys.
Boston is kind of a mess right now... I like and think they should keep Rondo, but I wouldn't blame them for selling high on him in December if he plays well. The only thing is, do they really want to trade Rondo for draft picks? They have a
ton of those in the next four or five drafts. Maybe a team like Milwaukee or Orlando could trade young players for him in the right kind of deal.
Philly is hopeless, but in a self-fulfilling-prophecy sort of way.