Playoff contenders
Finishing in the top six now carries more importance in each conference. That guarantees a team a first-round playoff spot without having to deal with the play-in.
Western Conference top-six odds
Out West, these seven teams have at least a 40% chance to finish in the top six, per BPI:
Utah Jazz: 100%
Phoenix Suns: 99.7%
LA Clippers: 99.5%
Los Angeles Lakers: 97.6%
Denver Nuggets: 87.6%
Portland Trail Blazers: 64.7%
Dallas Mavericks: 41.4%
The San Antonio Spurs (No. 7) and Memphis Grizzlies (No. 9) are within at least four games in the loss column of No. 6 Denver in the current standings, but BPI doesn't give either a better than 2% chance to finish that high. Meanwhile, the Lakers only fall as far as No. 7 in 2.4% of BPI simulations.
The play-in bubble
A reminder on how the play-in works: The teams finishing No. 7 and No. 8 in each conference will play each other, with the winner taking the No. 7 seed in the postseason. The loser will play the winner of a matchup between the teams that finish No. 9 and No. 10 -- and the winner of that final round will get the No. 8 seed.
BPI currently projects that 14 teams have at least a 25% chance to end up in the play-in round in some capacity. Here are the key teams to watch in each conference:
Western Conference No. 7 vs. No. 8 game
Dallas Mavericks: 50.1%
Golden State Warriors: 45.1%
Portland Trail Blazers: 31.6%
New Orleans Pelicans: 19.4%
Memphis Grizzlies: 16.3%
San Antonio Spurs: 15.9%
Denver Nuggets: 11.5%
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